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Friday, 18 March 2005
A Reader Comments: "How about KOMG vs. SYNA?"

Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor so please consult with your professional investment advisors before making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

A short while back, I had a comment on the blog:
"Hello,
How about your thoughts on KOMG relative to SYNA?"


As you probably know, if you have been following my trading, I bought some SYNA, and then stopped out shortly after the purchase with an 8%+ loss.

Anyhow, I have reviewed Synaptics (SYNA) on Stock Picks on February 26, 2005...so let's take a quick look at Komag (KOMG). I currently do not own any shares of either of these stocks.

KOMG is currently trading at $23.32, up $.46 or 2.01% on the day in an otherwise weak market. That's a plus!

Looking at Komag "Headlines" on Yahoo, we can see that they recently announced that the 1st quarter revenues for 2005 will be ahead of 4th quarter 2004 results. That is ALSO a plus!

How about the latest quarter? On February 2, 2005, KOMG reported 4th quarter results. "Net sales" rose to $131.2 million from $118.2 million last year. However, quarterly income came in at $15.7 million, or $.51/share down from $16.4 million or $.65/share last year. That is a NEGATIVE. (at least for the way I look at stocks.)

How about longer-term? What does the Morningstar.com '5-Yr Restated' Financials look like? The Morningstar.com financials show KOMG to be growing, but revenue has been inconsistent. In fact they grew to $358.5 million in revenue in 2000, then dropped to $282.6 million in 2001, and have improved since then. Earnings have improved from $1.47/share in 2003 to $1.94 in the trailing twelve months. Free cash flow, which was negative at $(49) million in 2001, grew to $50 million in 2003, and came in at $14 million in the TTM. The Current Assets total about $192.9 million, and the Current and Long-term liabilities together total only $132.6 million, so overall the balance sheet is solid.

So what do I think? Recall that SYNA has a much cleaner picture of revenue growth on the Morningstar.com report, with revenue improving from $43.4 million in 2000 to $141.8 million in the Trailing twelve months. Earnings have been up consistently with $.31/share in 2003, $.48/share in 2004 and $.55/share in the TTM.

Free cash flow has been steady at around $12 million/year. And the balance sheet on SYNA looks even nicer with $137.8 million in Current Assets, and only $25.5 million of Current liabilities on Morningstar.com showing, and only $2.4 million in long-term debt.

Now, you may have to pay for that higher 'quality' as KOMG has a trailing p/e of only 13.13 with a PEG of 0.93. SYNA has a trailing p/e of 30.07, with a PEG even nicer at 0.67. So, it is not clear that KOMG is necessarily the better value...but that depends on whether you trust estimates going forward.

So what do I think? Well, my system led me to pick SYNA, but I stopped out with an 8% loss. The latest quarter would keep me from posting KOMG, but that doesn't mean it isn't a great investment, it is just it doesn't enter my universe of stocks as it misses a couple of my screening tests.

Does that answer your question? I hope so. Good luck and let me know what you decided to do. You can see that my own decision led me to a small loss, so I do not claim to be omniscient; I only hope to do better than average :). (Or should I say better than the "Averages"!).

If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to enter them right on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com. I cannot answer all emails, but I will try to get to as many as possible!

Bob




Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 10:47 AM CST | Post Comment | Permalink

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