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Saturday, 19 March 2005
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of February 3, 2004






Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor so please consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

It is the weekend! And one of the things I like to do around here is to go back about a year and see how stock picks during that particular week have done since that time. Of course, this review assumes a buy and hold technique, when in reality, I utilize a system of limiting losses by selling them quickly at 8% loss limits, and then selling my winners slowly at designated gain targets. That being said, I feel it is still informative to see how stocks I picked have done since the time of their selection.

On February 4, 2004, I picked American Dental Products (ADPI) for Stock Picks at a price of $13.00. ADPI closed at $22.98 on 3/18/05, for a gain of $9.98 or 76.8%.

On February 23, 2005, ADPI announced 4th quarter 2004 results. For the quarter ended December 31, 2004, net revenue was $44.8 million, up 7% from $42 million last year. Net earnings were $2.1 million, up 18% from $1.8 million last year. Diluted net earnings per share came in at $.26/share, up 8% from $.24/share last year.

On February 4, 2004, I selected Hain Celestial Group (HAIN) for Stock Picks at $22.55/share. HAIN closed at $18.20/share, down $(4.35) or (19.3)% since selection.

On February 3, 2005, HAIN reported 2nd quarter 2005 results. Sales for the quarter ended December 31, 2004, increased nicely by 19% to $169.8 million from $142.8 million in the same quarter the prior year. However, GAAP net income was fairly flat at $10.7 million up from $10.4 million the prior year. On a per share diluted basis this came at $.29/share unchanged from last year's $.29/share.

On February 4, 2004, I selected Avon Products (AVP) for Stock Picks at $68.29/share. AVP had a 2:1 stock split on 6/1/04, for an effective stock pick price of $34.15. AVP closed at $40.41 on 3/18/05 for a gain of $6.26 or 18.3%.

On February 1, 2005, AVP reported 4th quarter 2004 results. For the quarter, adjusted for currency exchange rates, sales grew 7%. Net income for the quarter grew to $288.8 million or $.61/share, up from $261.3 million, or $.55/share.

On February 5, 2004, I picked Claire's Stores (CLE) on Stock Picks at $20.30. CLE closed at $22.68 on 3/18/05 for a gain of $2.38 or 11.7%.

On March 10, 2005, CLE reported 4th quarter 2004 results. Sales increased 9% to $395.9 million from $364 million on a same-store sales growth of 5%. Net income rose to $55.5 millilon from $52 million or $.56/share from $.53/share a yealr ago. As good as this result was, the company warned that comparisons will be more difficult in 2005.

Finally, on February 6, 2004, I picked Starcraft (STCR) for Stock Picks at a price of $17.50. STCR was acquired by Quantum (QTWW) in an acquisition that was complete by 3/3/05. STCR stock holders received 2.341 shares of Quantum (QTWW) for each share of Starcraft. QTWW closed at $4.89 on 3/18/05. Thus, based on the current price of QTWW, we have a resultant value of $11.45/share on this stock. This represents a loss of $(6.05) or (34.6)%.

On March 9, 2005, QTWW announced 3rd quarter 2005 results. Revenue for the quarter came in at $5.4 million with a loss of $(2.9) million or $(.09)/share. Revenue is up from last year's $4.4 million and a loss of $(3.1) million or $(.10)/share as well.

So how did I do with these picks? I had two losing issues (HAIN and STCR), and three gainers for an average gain of 10.58%.

Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lyco.com.

Bob




Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 10:39 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink

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