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Sunday, 15 May 2005
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of March 22, 2004






Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor. I am not a professional investment advisor so please consult with your professional investment advisor prior to making any decisions based on information on this website.

It is late Sunday, and I really should have gotten this done earlier. But let me see if we can cover this quickly and get right down to business!

What I like to do on weekends, is to go back and look at prior stock picks with about a year trailing period, and see how the stocks have done since they were "selected" on this blog. This discussion assumes a buy and hold strategy which is not what I employ nor do I recommend this approach. I much rather sell my losers quickly and my winners slowly!

Red Hat (RHAT) was selected on 3/24/04 (you can go to the list of dates along the left side of the main blog, and see the original posts if you like!) at a price of $21.44. RHAT closed on 5/13/05 at $12.35 for a loss of $(9.09) or (42.4)%.

On March 31, 2005, RHAT reported 4th quarter 2004 results. Revenue for the fourth quarter was $57.5 million, a 56% increase over the prior year, same quarter revenue. Net income came in at $11.8 million, up from $4.8 million the prior year, or on a diluted basis, up 100% to $.06/diluted share from $.03/diluted share the prior year.

On March 24, 2004, I posted Artisan Components (ARTI) at $18.88/share. ARTI was acquired by ARM holdings for $36.32/share on 12/24/04 for a gain of $17.44 or 92.4%. I had to chase down the acquisition price and that is the best I can determine from the ARM website!

Avon Products (AVP) was "picked" here on Stock Picks at $75.35/share on 3/25/04. AVP closed at $38.65/share after a 2;1 split on 6/1/04. Thus, the effective pick price was $37.68, so the stock has gained only $.97/share or 2.6%.

On May 2, 2005, AVP reported 1st quarter 2005 results. Revenue for the quarter was up 7% to $1.88 billion. Net income grew to $172.0 million this quarter from $148.1 million the prior year. Diluted eps grew 16% to $.36/share up from $.31/share the prior year same quarter. In addition, the company raised the full year 2005 earnings outlook.

Finally, National Medical Health Card (NMHC) was selected on stock picks at $25.06 on 3/26/04. NMHC closed at $24.20 on 5/13/05, for a loss of $(.86) or (3.4)%.

On May 9, 2005, NMHC posted 3rd quarter 2005 results. Revenue for the 2005 fiscal 3rd quarter grew to $199.3 million, up from $159.7 million the prior year. Net income was up over 100% to $3.3 million, from $1.6 million the prior year. On a diluted EPS basis, this came out to $.27/share, up from a loss of $(11.17)/share the prior year.

So how did we do during that week in March a bit over a year ago? Averaging the four stocks gives us a gain of 12.3% since posting.

Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Bob




Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 10:56 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink

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