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Stock Picks Bob's Advice
Tuesday, 21 June 2005
What to do with American Healthways?
Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

My AMHC stock hiccupped today! After a fairly good stock report, but with some conservative revisions for the upcoming quarter, the stock is trading lower. Naturally, the question arises, "what to do?"

American Healthways announced 3rd quarter 2005 results yesterday after the close. On first glance, they weren't too shabby. Revenues climbed 20% to $78.4 million, and net income came in at $8.5 million or $.24/share, up from $7.5 million, or $.22/share the prior year. However, the company was cautious with fiscal 2005 full year results on revenue, and estimated fourth quarter earnings at $.20 to $.22. The street didn't like the content of this advice and has taken AMHC down a notch.

As I write, AMHC is trading at $39.48, down $2.21 or 5.30% on the day.

The Motley Fool commented nicely on the situation:
I concluded with a warning that because of the stock's high valuation, even the perception of minor bad news could periodically drive the stock lower in the short run. It looks like that's what we're seeing today -- the stock has been taken down about 5% despite a pretty decent quarter.
But what should I do in my trading account?

I currently own 170 shares of AMHC with a cost basis of $23.53. I acquired these shares almost exactly a year ago on 6/18/04. I have already sold twice, once with a 30% gain, and once with a 60% gain.

Since my trading strategy is to unload shares only on serious fundamental problems, this doesn't apply. Furthermore, I shall let the market dictate my action. I still have a 66.70% gain, and I shall be letting AMHC drift back all the way to a 30% gain before unloading shares, or on the upside, I shall be selling another 1/4 position, should the stock reach 90%. Otherwise, I am sitting tight.

I hope that is helpful to you! Having a trading system is useful in giving all of us guidelines to initiate trade, for me providing me the directions that allow me to implement my own discipline and learn to sit on my hands without panic.

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 2:29 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink

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