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Tuesday, 5 July 2005
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of May 10, 2004
Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. I hope that you all had a very happy and safe 4th of July. For those of you in other countries, I still wish you a happy 4th! But I suppose it just doesn't mean the same thing! :)

As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

I am just sneaking in my weekend review. It is late, and in a few hours, the markets will open for trading once again here in the States. In order to determine whether what I am writing is working, I like to go back about a year and see how the stock picks actually would have done if I had purchased them. I do purchase some of them, but far from a majority of issues that are discussed.

For the sake of review, I assume a buy and hold strategy for all stock picks on the blog. This is done even though I actually follow a strategy of selling any losing stocks quickly at an 8% loss level, and selling gaining stocks slowly at a series of price appreciation targets.





The first stock selected that week was Hewitt Associates (HEW), which I picked for Stock Picks on May 10, 2004, when it was trading at $30.26. HEW closed at $26.76 on 7/1/05, for a loss of ($3.50) or (11.6%).

On May 4, 2005, HEW reported 2nd quarter 2005 results. Total revenue for the quarter jumped to $712.6 million, from $559.5 million the prior year same quarter. Net income, however, dropped to $27.2 million from $30.4 million last year. On a diluted earnings per share basis, this worked out to $.23/share, down 25.1% from $.31/share last year.


On May 11, 2004, I posted Rayovac (ROV) on Stock Picks at a price of $27.20. On April 27, 2005, Rayovac shareholders passed a resolution to change the corporate name from Rayovac (ROV) to Spectrum Brands (SPC) as of 5/2/05. SPC closed at $33.70 on 7/1/05 for a gain of $6.50 or 23.9% since posting.

On May 4, 2005, Spectrum announced 2nd quarter 2005 results Looking for both earnings and revenue growth to get a "thumbs-up" on this blog, SPC reported a large increase in net sales from $278.0 million to $534.5 million, in large part due to the acquisition of United Industries. The net loss for the quarter came in at ($1.9) million, compared to net income of $2.6 million last year, or on a per share diluted basis, this worked out to ($.04)/diluted share loss, vs. a gain of $.08/share the prior year.

On May 13, 2004, I posted MapInfo (MAPS) on Stock Picks at a price of $10.50. MAPS closed at $10.515 on 7/1/05, virtually unchanged from the post price, with a gain of $.015/share or .14% since posting.

On April 21, 2005, MapInfo reported 2nd quarter 2005 results. Revenue grew to $35.5 million, compared with $31.4 million the prior year. Net income more than doubled at $2.5 million or $.12/share, up from $1.07 million, or $.07/diluted share. (There were 1/3 more shares outstanding in 2005 than in 2004, explaining the discrepancy in growth.)

The last "pick" for that week was Panera Bread (PNRA) which was posted on Stock Picks on May 14, 2004, at a price of $35.63. PNRA closed at $61.50 on 7/1/05 for a gain of $25.87 or 72.6%.

On May 17, 2005, PNRA reported 1st quarter 2005 results. Revenue for the quarter ended April 19, 2005, jumped 37% to $178.1 million from $129.9 million last year. Net income jumped 47% to $13.9 million from $9.5 million last year. On a per share basis, diluted earnings grew 42% to $.44/share, up from $.31/share in the prior year same quarter. The company also raised guidance both for revenue and earnings, a very positive event!


So how did I do with my four selections for the week of May 10, 2004? Three out of four of the stock picks showed gains, ranging from almost unchanged at .14%, to a solid gain of 72.6% by Panera. Only Hewitt showed a loss, dropping by (11.6%) since posting the stock a little over a year ago. Averaging all four performances gives us an average return of 21.26% for the four stocks selected!

Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to leave them right here on the blog or you can email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 1:08 AM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Tuesday, 5 July 2005 1:18 AM CDT

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