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Saturday, 20 August 2005
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of June 21, 2004





Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

One of the things I like to do on this website is to look back on prior picks in a somewhat systematic fashion, and find out how they did after a year. Currently, I am up to the week of June 21, 2004, which is almost 60 weeks out, so we are looking back on stock picks from a bit over a year ago. If you would like to browse through past stock picks, you can on the blog where I have links along the left side of the page to previous picks grouped by date.

The review of past picks on these pages assumes a buy and hold strategy. That is, if I had purchased an equal dollar amount of the stocks discussed, 'what would have happened to that investment?' In reality, I have purchased only a small fraction of stocks discussed and share with the readers all of my transactions in my trading account. Furthermore, I do not ever 'buy and hold' anymore! I sell my losing stocks quickly, and sell my gaining stocks gradually at specified targeted prices. Someday, I shall have to integrate that strategy into these reviews....but for now, I shall do the best I can with a presumed 'buy and hold' review.

On June 21, 2004, I posted Amedisys (AMED) on Stock Picks at a price of $30.74. AMED closed at $42.67 on 8/19/05, for a gain of $11.93 or 38.8%.

On August 2, 2005, AMED reported 2nd quarter 2005 results. Net service revenue for the quarter ended June 30, 2005, increased 41% to $80.1 million from $56.9 million the prior year. Net income came in at $7.9 million or $.50/diluted share, up from $5.0 million or $.39/diluted share in the 2004 same period. The average number of shares outstanding did increase to 15.8 million in 2005, compared with 12.8 million shares the prior year.

On June 23, 2004, I posted NVE Corp (NVEC) on Stock Picks at a price of $36.61. NVEC closed at $14.97 on 8/19/05, for a loss of ($21.64) or (59.1%). Clearly, I do not bat 1.000 on these stock picks!

On July 20, 2005, NVEC reported 1st quarter 2006 results. Total revenue for the quarter ended June 30, 2005, came in at $3.03 million for the quarter compared with $2.89 million for the same quarter a year ago. Net income for the quarter worked out after "the effect of a non-cash provision for income taxes", to be $412,649 or $.09/diluted share, down from $483,671 or $.10/diluted share the prior year.

On June 24, 2004, I posted Cohesant Technologies (COHT) on Stock Picks at a price of $10.06. On August 19, 2005, COHT closed at $9.30, for a loss of ($.76) or (7.6%).

On June 16, 2005, COHT reported 2nd quarter 2005 results. Net sales climbed 7.8% to $5.7 million from $5.3 million the prior year same period. However, net income for the quarter came in at $406,986, down 23.1% from the $529,153 reported the previous year. On a fully diluted per share basis this came in at $.15/share in the current quarter, down from $.31/share the prior year same period.

So how did we do in the year interval since the postings? In a word, "awful". Averaging the three 'stock picks' we can see that I had one pick with a nice gain, but the other two came in at losses. In fact, the average performance of these three stocks came in at (9.3)%.

You can see that I don't always have a great week in reviewing past stocks! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog. If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them here on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 10:27 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink

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