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Saturday, 27 August 2005
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of June 28, 2004





Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

As I like to do, I use the weekend to review past stock selections on this blog in order to see how those stocks actually turned out a year later. I have missed a few reviews, so it works out that I am now about 60 weeks out from this trailing one year review. Each week, I move ahead another week and see "what happened". This week I am up to the week of June 28, 2004.

In my "real" trading account, I do not use a "buy and hold" approach. In fact, I sell my stocks quickly if they hit an 8% loss, and sell my gaining stocks slowly piecemeal, as they advance. But for the sake of this review, we shall be assuming a buy and hold approach and examine the weeks picks as if we had bought an equal dollar amount in each of the selections and see how we would have done if we had purchased all of them.

On these reviews, I also give each stock a 'thumbs-up' or a 'thumbs-down' when reviewing their latest earnings report. In order to get a 'thumbs-up', I insist that both earnings and revenue show positive growth over the prior year. That is what it means, in case you were wondering :).

On June 28, 2004, I posted Aeroflex (ARXX) on Stock Picks at a price of $13.66. ARXX closed at $8.93 on 8/26/05, for a loss of $(4.73) or (34.6)%.

On August 16, 2005, ARXX reported 4th quarter 2005 results. Net sales for the fourth quarter ended June 30, 2005, came in at $128.0 million up from $125.3 million for the same period in the prior year. GAAP income from continuing operations for the quarter came in at $.03/diluted share down from the prior year's $9.0 million or $.12/diluted share.

On June 29, 2004, I posted Getty Images (GYI) on Stock Picks at a price of $58.90. GYI closed on 8/26/05 at $84.08 for a gain of $25.18 or 42.8% since posting.

On July 26, 2005, Getty Images reported 2nd quarter 2005 results. Revenue grew 23% this year to $185.3 million, up from $150.3 million for the quarter ended June 30th last year. Net income came in at $34.0 million or $.53/diluted share up from $25.2 million or $.41/diluted share last year. In addition, the company increased guidance for the rest of 2005 to revenue in the range of $728-$735 million and earnings/diluted share of $2.20 to $2.26. This combined solid earnings report with raised guidance is the "one-two punch" that results in a higher stock price!

On June 30, 2004, I posted Navarre (NAVR) on Stock Picks at a price of $14.39. NAVR closed at $7.08 on 8/26/05, for a loss of $(7.31) or (50.8)%.

On August 2, 2005, Navarre reported 1st quarter 2005 results. Net sales increased 10.6% to $140.8 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2005, compared with net sales of $127.3 million for the same quarter last year. Net income, however, was flat at $2.4 million or $.08/diluted share, compared with $2.2 million or $.08/diluted share last year.

On June 30, 2004, I posted Scotts (SMG) on Stock Picks at a price of $63.88. SMG closed at $80.95 on 8/26/05 for a gain of $17.07 or 26.7%.

On July 28, 2005 Scotts Miracle-Gro announced 3rd quarter 2005 results. Revenue for the quarter ended July 2, 2005, increased 18% to $910.8 million compared with $769.1 million in the same quarter the prior year. Net income, however, dropped 11.7% to $88.5 million, from $100.3 million last year, due to non-recurring charges. On a per share basis, this was a 14.3% decline to $2.58/share down from $3.01/share last year. The street is still optimistic about the company and the stock moved higher.

On June 30, 2004, I posted Boston Scientific (BSX) on Stock Picks at $42.80. BSX closed 8/26/05 at $26.23, for a loss of $(16.57) or (38.7)% since posting.

On July 19, 2005, BSX announced 2nd quarter 2005 results. Net sales grew 11% for the quarter ended June 30, 2005, to $1.617 billion, up from $1.460 billion last year. Net income, including "special charges" dropped significantly to $205 million or $.24/share this year, down from $377 million, or $.44/share in the same quarter last year.

Finally, on July 1, 2004, I posted Tempur-pedic (TPX) on Stock Picks at a price of $14.45. TPX closed at $15.22 on 8/26/05 for a gain of $.77 or 5.3% since posting.

On July 21, 2005, Tempur-Pedic announced 2nd quarter 2005 results. For the quarter ended June 30, 2005, net sales grew 27% to $192.6 million, up from $151.6 million in the second quarter of 2004. Net income came in at $24.8 million or $.24/diluted share, up from $16.9 million or $.16/diluted share, working out to an increase in net income of 47%.

So how did I do for this week a little over a year ago? Actually it was a tough week for me picking stocks. I had three stocks gaining and three stocks losing. The average performance was a loss of (8.22)% on these six stocks.

Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting. Remember that past performance is not a guarantee of future results and that you should consult with a professional investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website!

If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com or just go ahead and post them right here on the blog. I hope everyone has a great Sunday and a great week trading next week!

Bob




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