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Saturday, 17 September 2005
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of July 12, 2004






Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

One of the things I like to do on weekends is to take a look back at past "picks" on this website and see how they would have done if I did buy them when I "picked" them. Indeed, virtually all of the stocks in my trading portfolio come from the stocks discussed on this blog.

For review purposes, I shall assume a "buy and hold" strategy for these picks. In reality, I sell my stocks quickly if they are losing money for me (an 8% loss is the sale point), and slowly at predetermined points (30%, 60%, 90%, 120%, 180% etc.) if they are making money for me. I cannot overemphasize this. The bias in selling losing stocks quickly and gaining stocks slowly is probably the most important "take-home" lesson on this blog. Regardless of how you decide to pick stocks.

On 7/13/04, I posted Option Care (OPTN) on Stock Picks when it was trading at $17.39 OPTN split 3:2 on 4/1/05, making my effective stock pick price actually $11.59. OPTN closed at $13.63 on 9/16/05 for a gain of $2.27 or 19.6%.

On August 9, 2005, OPTN announced 2nd quarter 2005 results. For the quarter ended June 30, 2005, revenues climbed 21% to $119 million from $99 million in the same quarter last year. Net income rose 15% to $5.4 million vs. $4.7 million last year same quarter. Diluted earnings per share increased to $.16/share for the quarter up from $.14/diluted share last year.

On July 14, 2004, I posted Genzyme (GENZ) on Stock Picks at $50.06/share. GENZ closed at $72.83 on September 16, 2005, for a gain of $22.77 or 45.5%.

July 14, 2005, GENZ announced 2nd quarter 2005 results. Revenue for the quarter ended June 30, 2005, increased 22% to $668.1 million from $549.6 million in the same quarter last year. GAAP net income came in at $123.6 million or $.46/diluted share, up from GAAP net income of $78.2 million or $.33/diluted share last year same period. In addition, the company also boosted guidance for 2005 revenue to $2.6-$2.8 billion, up from $2.5-$2.7 billion. It also raised guidance for GAAP EPS to $1.75 to $1.80 from $1.72 to $1.78. The combined strong earnings report with increased guidance 'going out' was enough to push the stock price higher!

On July 15, 2004, I posted SanDisk (SNDK) on Stock Picks when it was trading at $24.96. SNDK closed at $45.71 on 9/16/05, for a gain of $20.75 or 83.1%.

On July 21, 2005, SanDisk announced 2nd quarter earnings. Revenue jumped 19% to $515 million up from $433 million last year. Net income came in at $70.5 million, down from $71.8 million or $.37/diluted share, down from $.38/diluted share last year same quarter. This was ahead of estimates and the stock moved higher. I give it a "thumbs down" only because the net income and diluted EPS are down year-over-year. However, the "street" liked the report and the stock has appreciated nicely.

On July 15, 2004, I posted Carlisle Companies (CSL) on Stock Picks at $66.58. CSL closed at $63.50 on 9/16/05, for a loss of $(3.08) or (4.6)%.

On July 19, 2005, CSL reported 2nd quarter 2005 results. Net sales grew 9% to $645.9 million, for the quarter ended June 30, 2005, from $590.3 million in the same quarter last year. Net income for the three months was $34.7 million or $1.11/diluted share, down from $37.4 million or $1.19/diluted share last year.

Finally, on July 17, 2004, I posted Masonite (MHM) on Stock Picks at a price of $24.99. MHM was acquired by Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co (KKR) on 4/6/05 at a price of $42.25/share (Canadian). Since as of 9/14/05, when one Canadian Dollar traded at $.8469, the buyout can be converted into $35.78, for a gain of $10.79 (US) or 43.2%.

So how did I do picking stocks that week? Actually quite good, with four winners and one stock with a small loss. The average change since posting for the five stocks works out to a gain of 37.4% since posting. Now that was a good week picking stocks! (Please remember that past performance is no guarantee of future performance!)

Thanks again for stopping by! If you have any questions, or comments, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

By the way, when you get down to visit New Orleans, be sure to ride on one of those famous street cars. This streetcar is a St. Charles car that has apparently been rented out for a party!



Bob










Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 7:57 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink

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