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Sunday, 9 October 2005
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of August 2, 2004





Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

As I like to do on weekends, I try to do a retrospective review of my stock picks. These are not necessarily, and usually not, actual stocks that I hold in my trading account. However, this week, I will touch on Mentor (MNT) which is also a stock that I own.

The analysis of the performance of these stocks is based on a simple buy and hold approach. In actual practice, I sell my losing stocks quickly (triggered by an 8% loss), and sell my gaining stocks slowly and piecemeal, selling 1/4 of my holdings at various targeted gains, with a 30% gain being my first sale point. Obviously, if one employed this technique, performance would vary possibly greatly from what I report. However, for the sake of simplicity, I use the easier to calculate buy and hold approach.

On August 2, 2004, I posted DHB Industries (DHB) on Stock Picks at $17.05. DHB closed at $4.03 on 10/7/05, for a loss of $(13.02) or (76.4)%. This has to be one of my worst selections on my blog! Which again shows you that my picks are not a guarantee to anything! However, If you had owned this stock, and kept to the 8% loss limit, you still would be o.k.!

On July 28, 2005, DHB reported 2nd quarter 2005 results. Revenue increased slightly to $88.2 million compared with $86.1 million the prior year. However diluted earnings/share, was flat at $.17/share compared with $.17/share the prior year same period. The stock recently took a tumble when it announced the discontinuation of a bullet-proof vest line, when the federal government said "...vest containing Zylon might not provide officers with as much protection as they are supposed to" according to the article. Looking through the news, there are multiple lawsuits against the company pending.

On August 3, 2004, I made my only other stock pick for the week, Mentor (MNT), which I posted on Stock Picks at a price of $34.45. As I pointed out just above, I also purchased some shares of Mentor for my "Trading Portfolio". MNT closed at $51.16 on 10/7/05, for a gain of $16.71 or 48.5% since posting.

On August 2, 2005, Mentor reported 1st quarter 2006 results. Sales came in at $135.3 million, an 11% increase over the first quarter 2005 results. Earnings per share came in at $.47/share, a 27% increase over earnings in the same period the prior year. Helping the stock performance was the July 28, 2005 report that the Mentor silicone gel-filled implants were "approvable" as announced by the FDA, meaning the product was nearing final regulatory acceptance.

So how did I do with these two stocks? Well one was terrible with a (76.4)% loss, and was was great with a 48.5% gain. Averaging these two, I had an average loss of (14.0)%.

Thanks again for stopping by! I hope the upcoming weak is a bit more positive in tone. The market imho does appear to be a bit oversold. But then again, I try hard to to respond to my own fears and hopes regarding any stock or portfolio, but instead respond to the stock moves themselves! If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com or just simply post them right here on the blog!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 3:23 PM CDT | Post Comment | View Comments (2) | Permalink

Monday, 10 October 2005 - 7:02 AM CDT

Name: Frederic
Home Page: http://www.onlineinvestmentblog.com/

I think that you're doing well so far, letting the common man in on the "secrets" of being an investor. As a fellow investor myself, I appreciate the tips you hand out, it helps me understand the world of the stock market a lot better.

Monday, 10 October 2005 - 7:27 AM CDT

Name: Robert Freedland
Home Page: http://bobsadviceforstocks.tripod.com/bobsadviceforstoc

Frederic,

Thanks for the nice note. I have been investing as an amateur for over 30 years ago. Through this exercise of blogging, I have hopefully learned more about the investing process myself, and if I have added to your understanding as well, for that I am satisfied.

I try to share my brilliant picks and my "dogs" equally. Time will tell if my approach is helpful and you are welcome to join with me in this journey!

Bob

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