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Sunday, 11 December 2005
"Looking Back A Year" A review of stock picks from the week of October 4, 2004





Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

One of the things I like to do is to think about investments and in particular to pick stocks that seem to have the qualities that might lead to future price appreciation. In order to find out whether the selections are successful, I have taken to reviewing past stock selections on a rolling 52 (now about 60) week trailing basis. That is, I look at stocks from a bit more than a year ago, moving ahead another week each review, and see how they have turned out. Of course, this review depends on what is called a "buy and hold" strategy. In actuality, I sell losing stocks completely and quickly on price break-downs, and I sell my gaining stocks slowly and partially at targeted appreciation levels. However, for the sake of this review, this analysis suffices.

On October 4, 2004, I Posted WIPRO (WIT) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $20.86. WIT split 2:1 on 9/2/05, making my effective pick price actually $10.43. WIT closed at $11.18 on 12/9/05, giving me a $.75/share gain or 7.2% appreciation since posting.

On October 18, 2005, Wipro reported 2nd quarter 2006 results. For the quarter ended September 30, 2005, revenue climbed 26% over the prior year and net income was up 23%.

On October 6, 2004, I posted Wolverine World Wide (WWW) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $28.90. WWW split 3:2 on 2/2/05, so my effective pick price was actually $28.90 x 2/3 = $19.27. WWW closed at $22.52 on 12/9/05, for a gain of $3.25 or 16.9%.

On October 5, 2005, WWW reported 3rd quarter 2005 results. For the quarter ended September 10, 2005, revenue came in at $279.1 million, up 7% from the prior year's $260.9 million. Earnings per share came in at $.42, up from $.37/share the prior year, a 13.5% increase. The company also raised guidance. As reported in the same news story, from Timothy J. O'Donovan, the company's Chairman and CEO:
"With strong third quarter results and an order backlog increase of approximately 19 percent, we are increasing the Company's 2005 earnings per share estimate. We now expect earnings per share to range from $1.26 to $1.28. We have also focused our 2005 revenue range from $1.050 to $1.060 billion. The earnings per share estimate does not include any impact from the potential repatriation of foreign earnings under the American Jobs Creation Act of 2004 which the Company is currently evaluating."
A strong earnings report with an increase in guidance from the CEO is usually very bullish for a stock price!

Finally, on October 7, 2004, I posted Parlux Fragrances (PARL) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $14.95. PARL has had a very nice "aroma" for this website, closing at $30.84 on 12/9/05, for a gain of $15.89 or 106.3% since posting.

This stock gets a BIG "thumbs-up" on the latest earnings report! On November 14, 2005, PARL announced 2nd quarter 2006 results. For the quarter ended September 30, 2005, net sales came in at $39.3 million, up 73% from $22.7 million last year. Net income was $4.4 million, up from $2.4 million, an 87% increase (!). Earnings per share grew 83% on a diluted basis from $.23/share last year to $.42/share in this year's quarter. These were very strong results!

So how did we do a year later in this week's group of stock picks? Fabulous! I picked three stocks that week and they have since moved higher in price ranging from 7.2% to 106.3% for an average price appreciation of 43.47%. Most of that is of course from the PARLUX stock. Unfortunately, I don't own any shares of any of these stocks but my stock club does, at my last meeting at least, own a few shares of WIPRO.

Please remember that past performance is never a guarantee of future performance, that I am an amateur investor, and that you should check with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website!

Thanks again for visiting! If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to write me a note at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com or leave your comments on the blog.

Bob









Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 9:31 AM CST | Post Comment | Permalink

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