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Monday, 6 February 2006
Aldila (ALDA) A Reader Writes "...your thoughts on Aldila (ALDA)"
Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. Please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment adviosrs prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

Looking through my mail this afternoon, I came across a nice letter from Ariel, who writes from Argentina. His letter states:
"Hi Bob!

I have discovered your blog almost a year ago, and it has become one of my favourites. I check it out daily and I must say that I have learned a lot. Thanks a lot for all your tips!

I have been looking at your system for buying and selling stocks and it almost makes perfect sense to me. I was just wondering if you had considered not selling part of your stocks at the 30%, 60%, etc. thresholds, and instead sticking to your shares until you unload all of them because of either (i) the stock initially went down by 8%, or (ii) after passing the 30% threshold, the stock reached one of your previous thresholds. I was planning to use the same thresholds as you use, but just as check points, without selling any of the shares if the stock is going up. In this way, if the stock keeps on going up, you stay invested in the stock. I would like to know your thoughts.

I would also like to take the opportunity to know your thoughts on Aldila (ALDA). I am quite bullish on this stock.

Thanks once more!

Ariel"
First of all, thank you for your kind words and encouragement. I always enjoy hearing from readers who have suggestions, comments, and questions! On the question of not selling parts of my stocks at % gain points, and just waiting. That might indeed be a good idea. I guess I am even a bit more conservative than you on this matter. Selling a small portion of a gaining stock is for me a way of 'hedging my bet'. A lot of the stocks that I review tend to be quite volatile. They climb quickly, and occasionally can correct just as quickly. If you need to be convinced, take a look at Intuitive Surgical (ISURG) the past few days.

It may turn out that your approach could indeed be more profitable than what I am doing. Let me know how it works. On the other hand, I find that my overall philosophy of selling poorly performing stocks quickly and completely, and then selling nicely performing stocks slowly and partially makes absolute sense. It is this bias that builds the portfolio. By the way, I also stay invested in the stock as it climbs (albeit with smaller positions). And with my recent change to selling 1/6th positions at the targeted appreciation points, my absolute holding should also increase in size.

I hope this answers your question. It is important for you to develop your own strategy of buying and selling stocks. There are many variations on what I am doing that are likely to be successful, and I am sure there are some approaches that will be even more successful than my strategy, so don't feel tied down to what I am doing! The important thing is to have a strategy and to stick with it. And if you come across something that works even better, well don't hesitate to change your methods and adapt to new information.

Now insofar as your question on Aldila (ALDA), let me take a quick look and see what we find. First of all, I must assume that you are an owner of Aldila shares. I don't own any shares of ALDA, nor do I have any options.

What does Aldila do? According to the Yahoo "Profile" on ALDA, the company
"...through its subsidiaries, engages in the design and manufacture of graphite (carbon fiber-based composite) golf shafts in the United States. It sells its shafts to golf club manufacturers, distributors, and golf pro and repair shops."
By the way Aldila (ALDA) closed today (2/6/06) at $29.89, up $.52 or 1.77% on the day.

As you probably know, if you are a regular reader of this blog, I like to go to the latest quarterly report for the first 'screen' when picking stocks (after finding a stock on the top % gainers lists).

On October 26, 2005, ALDA reported 3rd quarter 2005 results. Net sales for the quarter ended September 30, 2005, came in at $19.3 million, a 79% increase over sales of $10.8 million in the same period the prior year. Net income was $3.8 million or $.68/diluted share, representing an approximately 10-15% increase over the net income of $3.3 million or $.62/diluted share the prior year. Clearly, this was a good report, but it is interesting that the revenue grew far faster than income.

How about longer-term? Looking at the Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated" financials on ALDA, we find that revenue actually decreased from $55.9 million in 2000 to a low of $37.5 million in 2002 before turning higher to $52.8 million in 2004 and $71.4 million in the TTM.

The company also just turned profitable in 2004, with losses dropping to $(10.10)/share in 2001, improving steadily thereafter. The company has reported $2.25/share in income in the TTM. In addiiton, the company paid $.20/share in dividends in 2004 and $1.35/share in the TTM.

Free cash flow is positive and growing with $2 million reported in 2002, $8 million in 2004 and $8 million in the TTM.

The balance sheet is perfect with $19.4 million in cash and $20.4 million in other current assets, giving the company a current ratio of almost 5. They have $8.8 million in current liabilities per Morningstar and no long-term liabilities at all.

Looking at Yahoo "Key Statistics" on ALDA, we find that this is a very small company with a market cap of only $160.42 million. The trailing p/e is cheap at 13.22. Price/sales is 2.21, there are only 5.37 million shares outstanding with 4.17 million that float. There are 70,830 shares short representing 1.40% of the float or 2.5 trading days of volume. The company has an indicated dividend of $.60/share yielding 2%. The last stock split was a reverse 1:3 split June, 2002.

What about a chart? Reviewing the "Point & Figure" chart from Stockcharts.com on ALDA:


We can see a beautiful chart with the stock moving almost perfectly steadily higher from $1.25 in June, 2003 to the current $30 level today. There was a small correction in the stock price as initially the price seemed to get ahead of itself in June, 2004, when the stock corrected from $17/share to $11.50/share. After that the stock price increased rather steadily.

So what do I think? Aldila fits in to my strategy fairly well. I prefer an even longer period of steady revenue and earnings growth, but the company has been doing this the past few years. Morningstar looks fairly nice with steadily improving free cahs flow and a solid balance sheet. Valuation is nice with a low p/e and the chart is gorgeous. Like any small cap stock, one can expect additional volatility, and I don't know enough about golf clubs to give you a feeling for how this stock does down the road.

I hope my commentary was helpful to you. Please feel free to write again! If you or anyone else have questions or comments, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Bob





Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 5:47 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink

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