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Sunday, 19 February 2006
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of November 29, 2004







Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

If you are a regular reader of my blog, you will know that I like to review my past stock picks each weekend with about a trailing one year period. Since I have missed a couple of wekeends along the way, this has grown to about a trailing 15 month period. This week, I am up to the week of November 29, 2004.

For the sake of reviews, I presume a "buy and hold" strategy for assessing my past stock picks. In reality, I use a very involved investment strategy, selling my losers quickly and completely at an 8% loss level, and then selling my gaining stocks slowly and partially at predetermined appreciation targets. I also have a strategy to sell stocks after they have reached targeted gains and then declined at certain pre-detmermined levels. All of these strategies will greatly affect the actual return in practice. But for the sake of these reviews, a buy and hold strategy is the easiest way to calculate returns!

On November 29, 2004, I posted Ixia (XXIA) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $15.13. XXIA closed at $13.50 on 2/17/06 for a loss of $(1.63) or (10.7)% since the stock selection here.

On February 6, 2005, XXIA announced 4th quarter 2005 results. Net revenues for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2005, came in at $37.5 million a 6.5% increase over last year's $35.2 million in net revenue. Net income, however, dropped to $5.5 million or $.08/diluted share, down from $7.6 million or $.11/diluted share last year.

On December 2, 2004, I posted Gildan Activewear (GIL) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice at a price of $32.65. Gildan had a 2:1 stock split on June 1, 2005, giving me an effective "pick price" of $16.33. GIL closed at $49.30 on 2/17/05, for a gain of $32.97 or 201.9% since posting!

On February 1, 2006, Gildan announced 1st quarter 2006 results. Sales for the quarter ended January 1, 2006, came in at $120.3 million, up 10.4% from $109.0 million in the same quarter last year. Net earnings were even better, coming in at $16.2 million, and diluted EPS of $.27/share, up 92.3% from $8.4 million or $.14/diluted share in the first quarter in 2005. These were great results! In addition, the company raised guidance for earnings for the full fiscal year.

So how did we do that week in November in 2004? Well since posting these two stocks, XXIA came in with a small (10.7)% loss and GIL came in with a fabulous 201.9% gain! Thus, the average performance for these two stocks was a gain of 95.6% since posting. Please remember that past performance is NO guarantee of future price performance! And unfortunately, I don't own Gildan or Ixia stock.

Thanks again for stopping by and visiting! If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Bob










Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 9:54 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink

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