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Sunday, 26 March 2006
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of January 3, 2005







Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

On as many weekends as I can, I like to review past stock investment ideas and see how they would have turned out if I had chosen to purchase those shares. Of the many stocks I discuss, only a few are actually added to my own trading portfolio. It should also be noted that my own investment strategy is to sell stocks quickly and completely at small losses and to sell my gaining stocks slowly and partially at targeted appreciation points. For the purposes of this review, I assume a buy and hold strategy to determine the performance of the picks. This strategy would necessarily result in a different performance result than would the practice I employ in reality.






On January 5, 2005, I posted Build A Bear Workshops (BBW) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $34.18. BBW closed at $29.37 on 3/24/06 for a loss of $(4.81) or (14.1)%.

On February 16, 2006, BBW announced 4th quarter 2005 results. For the quarter ended December 31, 2005, revenue climbed 18.7% to $118 million, compared with $99.4 million in the same quarter the prior year. Net income for the quarter grew 68.1% to $10.6 million or $.52/diluted share, vs. $6.3 million or $.32/diluted share in the prior year.

On January 6, 2005, I "revisited" Chico's FAS (CHS) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $48.98/share. Chico's split 2:1 on February 23, 2005, shortly after I picked this stock, giving me an effective pick price of $24.49/share. CHS closed at $40.81 on 3/24/06, for a gain of $16.32 or 66.6% since posting.

On March 1, 2006, Chico's announced 4th quarter results. For the quarter ended January 28, 2006, sales grew 32% to $375.7 million from $285.6 million. Earnings were up at $44.5 million or $.24/share, from $33 million, or $.18/share the prior year. As the report noted:
"Same-store sales, or sales at stores open at least one year, jumped 14.6 percent during the period. The figure is a key measure of a retailer's performance."
However, analysts were looking for $.25/share on sales of $377 million, so on that measure the company did disappoint on expectations.



Finally, on January 8, 2005, I posted Constellation Brands (STZ) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $49.13. STZ split 2:1 on May 16, 2005, giving me an effective pick price of $24.57. STZ closed at $25.56 on 3/24/06 for a gain of $.99/share or 4.0% since posting.

On January 5, 2006, Constellation reported 3rd quarter 2006 results. Sales came in at $1.3 billion, up 17% from the prior year. Net income was up 12% to $109 million and diluted earnings per share climbed 10% to $.46.

So how did I do on these three stock picks? Well, basically two were unimpressive, and one, Chico's did fabulously. Thus, the average performance for the three stock selections was a gain of 18.8% since posting.

Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting! If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com or just leave your words right on the blog!

Bob







Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 9:28 AM CST | Post Comment | Permalink

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