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Wednesday, 5 April 2006
"Trading Transparency" St Jude Medical (STJ)
Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

As I like to do, I wanted to update you with an actual trade I just made in my trading account. A few moments ago I sold my remaining 180 shares of St Jude Medical (STJ) at $36.23. These shares had been purchased 10/15/03 at a cost basis of $28.90/share so I had a gain of $7.33 or 25.4%.

So why did I sell my shares? STJ got my attention today when examining my list of stocks I noted that the stock was selling at $36.30 (currently) down $(5.00) or (12.11)%. Looking through the news I found this story on first-quarter outlook where the company noted that the upcoming quarter was going to be light on both profit and revenue and cut projections. This is a case of lowered guidance, which had the exact opposite effect of all of those reports by companies I like to refer to which include raised guidance! Thus, the stock dipped.

My own instinct was to stay the course so to speak. I do not see anything in this news that says the company is not a great investment, etc., etc., but another fact came to light. I realized, that since I had purchased this stock in October, 2003, I had made two sales of partial positions on gains involving thirty shares sold 1/28/04, and another 60 shares sold on 7/20/05. With my second sale at a 60% appreciation level, my strategy calls for me to unload my remaining shares if the stock should retrace 50% of my highest sale point, which would be back to a 30% gain. Thus, with today's drop, the stock also hit a sale point for me on the downside and I pulled the plug!

Anyhow, that's what happened. Again with my portfolio management system, this sale doesn't really change anything. I don't get to buy another position to replace STJ because this sale was on "bad news". However, I have a couple of stocks that appear ripe for a sale on the upside, so I shall be waiting for that event before adding a new stock to the mix.

Would I ever revisit STJ? Absolutely. It just has to be at the right place at the right time and I shall be rebuying shares. But with so many other stocks to choose from, it is unlikely that I shall be owning shares of this company in the near future.

Thanks again for visiting! If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com or just leave your comments right on the website.

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 9:10 AM CDT | Post Comment | View Comments (2) | Permalink

Saturday, 8 April 2006 - 3:55 AM CDT

Name: Black
Home Page: http://www.leverageyoureffort.com

Hi Bob

The stock looked like it was a shortable candidate back around 17 February using technical analysis. Looks like your system is values based and uses a longer term time-frame. Anyway, good to make a profit - well done. Trading on news is an art and can sometimes give contradictory results.

Saturday, 8 April 2006 - 8:07 AM CDT

Name: Bob
Home Page: http://bobsadviceforstocks.tripod.com/bobsadviceforstoc

Thank you for your comment. You might be right about the short on STJ. I have always been on the long side of the market. A wise investor should be able to use the same information I use to go short as well as long. But as you say, it is good to make a profit! I try hard to not trade so much based on news but by the action of the underlying equity itself. I use fundamentals to attempt to ascertain whether a stock move has underpinnings that will allow it to continue to move higher. Most of the time it appears to work!

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