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Saturday, 22 April 2006
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of January 31, 2005









Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

We have had a rather tumultuous week in the markets. The Dow hit a 6 year high, with the NASDAQ still sitting at almost 50% of its all-time high. And now we have oil flirting with $75/barrel levels never seen before. Gasoline is now working towards $3.00/gallon and the market has a lot of head-wind to go against with the Fed continuing to push short-term rates higher.

But in the midst of all this, I stay focussed on stocks and let the action of my portfolio dictate my own activity in the market.

If you are a regular reader here, you will know that the weekend is my time of reviewing past stock selections. I am now about 60 weeks out with my continuing review and try to keep you posted how all of my selections turned out. If you are interested in reading some past picks, you can find them by searching on Google with "Stock Picks XXXX" where XXXX represents the symbol you wish to find. Usually this works--it is my own approach to wading through my voluminous blog. You can also flip through the pages going by dates and clicking on the dates along the left side of my blog entries. You probably knew that anyhow.

With my reviews I assume a 'buy and hold' approach. While this is an easy way to assess performance, in reality, I employ a much more disciplined selling strategy. I only allow a stock to decline 8% before unloading the shares, and on gainers, I start selling portions of my holdings as stocks reach appreciation levels of 30% and higher. That being said, I always enjoy taking another look at past stock picks which helps me see what is and what isn't working in this process.

On February 2, 2005, I posted Pacer Intl (PACR) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $22.74. PACR closed at $34.60 on April 21, 2006, for a gain of $11.86 or 52.2% since the posting.

On February 8, 2006, Pacer reported 4th quarter 2005 results. For the quarter ended December 30, 2005, total revenue declined (5.1)% to $503.8 million from $530.8 million. Net income however, increased to $20.4 million or $.54/share, up from $17 million or $.44/share the same period last year. This represented an increase of 20% in net income and an increase of 22.7% in diluted earnings per share.





On February 3, 2005, I posted Mercury Interactive (MERQ) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $47.89. Mercury now is on the "pink sheets" and trades as MERQ.PK, and closed at $37.00 on 4/21/06, for a loss of $(10.89) or (22.7)% since posting.

MERQ.PK is in the process of restating results and I cannot comment on the earnings without something solid to discuss.


Finally, on February 4, 2005, I 'revisited' ResMed on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $59.84. ResMed (RMD) had a 2:1 split on October 3, 2005, making my effective pick price half of that amount or $29.92. RMD closed at $43.05 on 4/21/06, for a gain of $13.13 or 43.9%.

On February 7, 2006, ResMed announced 2nd quarter 2006 results. Revenue for the quarter was $146.4 million, a 41% increase over the quarter ended December 31, 2004. Net income increased to $22.3 million from $17.4 million the prior year. On a diluted per share basis, this represented a 20% increase to $.30/share up from $.25/share.

So how did I do with my stock picks during this week a bit over a year ago? I had two gaining stocks and one losing stock. The average percentage change was a gain of 24.5% on the three stocks. Not too shabby at all :). Anyhow, that's the review!

Thanks so much for stopping by! If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com. Please also come and visit my Stock Picks Bob's Advice Podcast Site.

Bob






Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 3:45 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink

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