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Stock Picks Bob's Advice
Sunday, 7 May 2006
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of February 14, 2005







Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

The weekend is drawing to a close and I still haven't done all of my homework :(. So hear goes!

First of all, one of the tasks I give myself each weekend is a review of past stock picks from a period about a year earlier. I am actually up to about 60 weeks out. In this review I assess what would have happened if I had purchased the stocks I mention in equal dollar amounts from that period of time and if I had held them to the present. What is called a "buy and hold" approach.

In fact, I do not follow or advocate this strategy. I have implemented a strategy in my own trading account that includes selling stocks quickly after a purchase if they drop 8%, and selling portions of my stocks at targeted appreciation levels. This strategy would definitely affect the performance of any portfolio using these stock picks. But for the sake of ease of measurement, I like to assume this "buy and hold" strategy to determine performance.

On February 15, 2005, I picked Ansys (ANSS) for Stock Picks Bob's Advice at $37.03/share. ANSS closed at $56.88 on May 5, 2006, for a gain of $19.85 or 53.6% since posting.

On April 27, 2006, Ansys reported 1st quarter 2006 results. Revenue grew nicely to $46 million from $37.6 million in the same quarter last year. Net income was up to $12.9 million or $.38/diluted share, up from $9.7 million or $.29/diluted share in the same quarter last year.

On February 18, 2005, I posted Allscripts Healthcare Solutions (MDRX) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $13.16. MDRX closed at $18.35 on May 5, 2006, for a gain of $5.19 or 39.4%.

On May 2, 2006, MDRX announced quarterly results. Total revenue for the quarter ended March 31, 2006, was $42.2 million, up strongly from revenue of $26.2 million in the same period the prior year. Net Income, however, was flat at $1.3 million or $.03/diluted share, unchanged from $1.3 million or $.03/diluted share the prior year same period. Without growth in earnings, the stock gets an automatic thumbs down.

So how did these two picks do? In a word, terrific. In fact, averaging the performance of these two picks results in an average gain of 46.5%. Please remember that past performance is no guarantee for future stock appreciation. But that was pretty nice!

Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting! If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com. Also, be sure to visit my Stock Picks Bob's Advice Podcast Website.

Bob


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