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Sunday, 7 May 2006
JLG Industries (JLG) Weekend Trading Portfolio Analysis












Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

Another of the tasks that I like to accomplish on weekends is to take a closer look at the actual stocks that I hold in my trading portfolio. I am currently up to 23 positions, and reviewing one every other week, going alphabetically, should take me almost one year.

Two weeks ago I reviewed Healthways on Stock Picks Bob's Advice. Going alphabetically, I am now up to JLG Industries (JLG). I currently own 320 shares of JLG which were purchased 1/12/06 with a cost basis of $25.81. I have yet to sell any of these shares. JLG closed at $29.54 on 5/5/06, for an unrealized gain of $3.73 or 14.5% since my purchase. Currently, planned sales would be to sell all of my shares if the stock hit an 8% loss or dropped to .92 x $25.81 = $23.75. On the upside, if the stock should appreciate 30%, I plan on selling 1/6th of my shares or 53 shares. The first targeted sale is at 1.3 x $25.81 = $33.55.

I last reviewed JLG on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $51.55/share. JLG split its stock 2:1 on March 28, 2006, giving this pick an effective price of $25.78. Let's take another look at this holding of mine and see if the numbers are still promising!

1. What does the company do?

According to the Yahoo "Profile" on JLG, this company
"...provides access equipment and highway-speed telescopic hydraulic excavators. The company operates through three segments: Machinery, Equipment Services, and Access Financial Solutions."

2. How about the latest quarterly result?

On February 22, 2006, JLG reported 2nd quarter 2006 results. Revenue in the quarter ended January 29, 2006, grew 40% to $494 million, from the prior year same period. Net income was up 265% to $27.4 million from $7.5 million, and per share this year the company reported $.52/share, up over 200% from last year's $.17/share.

3. How about longer-term results?

The Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated" financials on JLG shows that revenue actually declined from $1.0 billion in 2001 to a low of $751 million in 2003. Since 2003, however, revenue has resumed its steep climb to $1.2 billion in 2004, $1.7 billion in 2005 and $2.0 billion in the trailing twelve months (TTM).

Earnings also have been a bit erratic dropping from $.40/share in 2001 to a loss of $(1.18)/share in 2002. However, the company turned profitable at $.15/share in 2003 and has been steadily improving this number with $.60/share reported in 2005 and $1.14/share in the TTM.

The company does pay a small dividend which was $.02/share in 2001, $.01/share in 2002 and the same since then. The company has been expanding its float somewhat with 84 million shares outstanding in 2001, growing to 93 million in 2005 and 106 million in the TTM.

Free cash flow, which was a negative $(121) million in 2003, improved to $(24) million in 2004, turned positive at $96 million in 2005 and grew to $99 million in the TTM.

The balance sheet looks solid with $183.3 million in cash and $700.4 million in other current assets, which, when balanced against the $360.4 million in current liabilities, gives us a 'current ratio' of 2.45. In addition, JLG has $325.3 million in long-term liabilities. Thus the current assets are sufficient to easily cover the current liabilities and are enough to also pay off all of the long-term liabilities as well.

4. How about some valuation numbers on this stock?

Reviewing Yahoo "Key Statistics" on JLG, we find that the company is a large cap stock with a market capitalization of $3.12 billion. The trailing p/e is a moderate 27.20, with a forward p/e even nicer at 16.50 (fye 31-Jul-07 estimated). Thus, with the steady growth, the PEG ratio (5 yr expected) comes in at 1.27.

According to the fidelity.com eresearch website, JLG is in the "Farm/Construction Machinery" industrial group. Within this group, JLG is moderately priced with a Price/Sales ratio of 1.5. Topping this group is Joy Global (JOYG) with a ratio of 3.9, next are JLG and Caterpillar (CAT) both with ratios of 1.5, Deere (DE) at 1.0, Terex (TEX) at 1.0 and AGCO (AG) at 0.5.

Returning to Yahoo, we find there are 105.51 million shares outstanding and 103.60 million that float. Currently 6.99 million shares (4/10/06) are out short representing 6.9% of the float or 5.3 trading days of volume. Using my own 3 day rule on short interest, I think this level of short sellers is significant and may add to a move higher in the stock especially if the upcoming earnings are good.

Yahoo reports the estimated forward dividend is $.02/share yielding 0.2%. The last stock split was a 2:1 split on March 28, 2006.

5. And what does the chart look like?

If we look at the "Point & Figure" chart on JLG from StockCharts.com:



We can see that the price dropped from $8.50 in April, 2002, to a low of $2.00/share in March, 2003. However, starting with a sharp rise in April, 2003, from $2.25 to $8.00 in January, 2004, the stock has been moving strongly higher to its current level of $29.54. If anything, with the stock flying high above its "blue support line" the stock looks a bit over-extended in price.

6. Summary: What do I think?

First of all, I am terribly biased about this stock as I own shares! But reviewing this analysis, the company had a terrific earnings report and has another one coming in a couple of weeks. Hopefully that report will be well-received. The Morningstar.com page looks nice for the past few years, after a couple of years of week results between 2001 and 2003. Earnings have been growing, the company pays a small dividend, and free cash flow is positive and improving. On a negative not, the company has been issuing shares, with a small amount of dilution effects. Finally, the balance sheet is solid and the chart looks strong. On a valuation basis, the forward p/e is under 20, the PEG is about 1.25, and the Price/Sales ratio looks reasonable within its group.

I still like JLG.

Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting! If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com or just go ahead and leave your messages right on the blog. Please also remember to stop by and visit my Stock Picks Bob's Advice Podcast Website!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 7:03 PM CDT | Post Comment | View Comments (1) | Permalink

Tuesday, 9 May 2006 - 10:43 AM CDT

Name: Meg
Home Page: http://stock-wealth.blogspot.com/

I just started stock trading in Singpaore. How I wish you can be here to give us this expert advice. Wish us success in snatching our wealth in our stock market!
My blog is at http://stock-wealth.blogspot.com/. Hope to C U there with your valuable advice.
Thanks!

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