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Sunday, 21 May 2006
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of February 28, 2005







Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

In order to determine how my stock picks have turned out, I have been trying to review past stock picks each weekend. I am currently about 60 weeks out with this review process. Each weekend I review picks from that trailing period and advance a week the following weekend.

This review assumes a "buy and hold" strategy. In fact, I practice and recommend a disciplined portfolio management strategy involving selling losing stocks quickly and completely when they hit 8% losses and selling gaining stocks slowly and partially as they appreciate. This strategy will affect performance; for the sake of simplicity, I shall continue to evaluate past picks assuming a buy and hold approach, but please be aware that investment performance would be quite different with a different portfolio strategy.

On February 28, 2005, I listed Alamo Group (ALG) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $24.80/share. ALG closed at $21.33 on 5/19/06 for a loss for the pick of $(3.47) or (14.0)%.

On May 3, 2006, Alamo Group announced 1st quarter 2006 results. Net sales grew 14% to $104.4 million compared to $91.3 million in the same quarter last year. However, excluding revenue from the acquisition of Spearhead Machinery, net sales would actually have been $87.8 million, a decrease of 4% from last year's results. Net income for the quarter came in at $1.9 million or $.20/diluted share down from $2.6 million or $.26/diluted share last year. There wasn't too much imho, to be excited about this report.

On March 2, 2005, I posted Pacific Sunwear (PSUN) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $28.52. PSUN closed at $22.68 on May 19, 2006, down $(5.84) or (20.5)% since posting.

On May 11, 2006, PSUN announced 1st quarter 2006 earnings. Net sales for the quarter ended April 29, 2006, were $299.9 million, up 7.1% over sales of $280.0 million for the quarter ended April 30, 2005. Net income for the first quarter 2006 was $11.9 million or $.16/diluted share, down from $17.6 million or $.23/diluted share in the same period a year earlier. Indicative of the problems facing this company, same store sales decreased 1.8% for the comparable 13 week period ended April 29, 2006. Again, there wasn't much to 'write home about' on this stock!

Finally, on March 4, 2005 I posted Perficient (PRFT) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $9.33. PRFT closed at $13.00 on May 19, 2006, for a gain of $3.67 or 39.3% since posting.

On May 3, 2006, Perficient reported 1st quarter 2006 results. For the quarter ended March 31, 2006, total revenue climbed 50% to $29.6 million compared to $18.3 million during the first quarter of 2005. GAAP earnings climbed 17% to $.07/share up from $.06/share during the same quarter last year. Of the three stocks, this stock had the only positive quarterly report imho and represented the only stock making a nice gain!

So how did I do picking stocks for that week back in early 2005? Well, there were two losing stocks and one gaining stock. Fortunately, the one gaining stock made up for the two losers and the three stocks had an average gain of 1.6%. Not too exciting, but positive in any case :).

Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting! If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com. If you get a chance, please visit my Stock Picks Bob's Advice Podcast Site where you can hear me discuss some of the stocks and questions I face on the blog!

Bob


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