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Saturday, 24 June 2006
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of March 21, 2005







Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog Stock Picks Bob's Advice. As always, please remember that I am an amateur invesor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

I apologize for missing a couple of weekend reviews. Long story. But anyway, I am back on track!

In order to assess the validity of what I write about here on this website, I have been trying to review past picks going a week at a time. I review all of the picks that week and calculate their performance based on a simple "buy and hold" strategy.

In practice, I actually manage my portfolio in a disciplined fashion, selling my poorly performing stocks quickly and completely, and selling my stronger appreciating investments slowly and partially at targeted appreciation points. This difference in strategy will of course affect performance.

On March 23, 2005, I posted Forest Laboratories (FRX) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $37.90. Forest closed at $37.56 on June 23, 2006, for a loss of $(.34) or (.9)% since posting.

On April 25, 2006, Forest Laboratories announced 4th quarter 2006 results. For the quarter ended March 31, 2006, revenue for the quarter increased 16% to $756 million from $653 million the prior year same period. Diluted earnings per share grew 87% to $.28/share from $.15/share in the prior year same period.

On March 25, 2005, I posted Aladdin Knowledge Systems (ALDN) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when Aladdin was trading at $23.26. ALDN closed at $19.46 on June 23, 2006, for a loss of $(3.80) or (16.3)%.

On April 24, 2006, ALDN reported 1st quarter results. Revenue for the quarter rose to $22.9 million from $20.3 million the same period last year exceeding analysts' expectations of $22.6 million. Net income climed to $3.8 million or $.25/share, up from $1.2 million or $.10/share in the prior year same period. Analysts had been expecting earnings of $.27/share. Thus, revenue exceeded expectations, but earnings which grew nicely didn't quite meet expectations.

So how did we do with these two stock picks from that week a little over a year ago? In a word, mediocre :(. These stocks had an average loss of (8.6)%.

Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting! If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to drop me a line at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com or leave your comments right on the blog and be sure to visit my Stock Picks Bob's Advice Podcast Site

Bob


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