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Saturday, 26 August 2006
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of April 25, 2005

 

 

 

 

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website!

I am glad to be back blogging after being away for a couple of weeks.  Thank you so much for rechecking with me after my absence.  I know so little about all of you readers but I assume there are some of you who regularly stop by to read what I have to write.  For all of you regulars, your loyalty is appreciated.  For those of you who are new to this website, well welcome and make yourself at home!

One of those things that I regularly try to do around here is to review past stock picks and find out how they turned out.  This review assumes a "buy and hold"  strategy assuming buying equal dollar amounts of the stock picks the day they were selected and holding without concern for stock appreciation or loss.  This isn't what I actually recommend for my own stock purchases.  I employ a disciplined buying and selling strategy involving the quick sale of declining stocks at an 8% loss and the partial sales of gaining stocks at targeted appreciation points.  However, for the sake of this review, and to continue my past review practices, this is what I use for evaluation.

I should also point out that when I started this review process some years back (!), I actually was a year out.  Missing weeks here and there, I am now, as you can see, almost 1 1/2 years out from my picks and reviews.  

On April 29, 2005, I posted CNS (CNXS) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $18.09. CNXS closed at $27.88 on August 25, 2006, for a gain of $9.79 or 54.1% since posting.

 

On August 2, 2006, CNXS reported 1st quarter 2007 results.  Net sales came in at $29.3 million for the quarter, up 25% from $23.5 million the prior year.  Net income, however, for the quarter came in at $3.5 million or $.24/diluted share down from $4.0 million or $.27/share in the same quarter last year.  Certainly the growth in revenue was solid, as has been the stock performance since my "pick"; however, due to the decline in earnings, I have to assign this stock a "thumbs-down". (Stocks only get "thumbs-up" on these reviews if both the earnings and revenue have improved.

On April 27, 2005, I posted Hologic (HOLX) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $35.85. HOLX had a 2:1 stock split December 1, 2005 and another 2:1 stock split March 26, 2006.  Thus, my effective pick price was actually $35.85 x 1/2 x 1/2 = $8.96.  HOLX closed at $42.21 on August 25, 2006, for a gain on this pick of $33.25 or 371%!  (Every once in a while it is nice to smack one out of the park!)

On July 25, 2006, Hologic announced third quarter fiscal 2006 results.  Revenues totalled $119.7 million, a 62% increase over revenues of $74 million in the same quarter in 2005.  Net income came in at $12 million or $.25/share, up sharply from $8.2 million or $.18/share reported in the same quarter in 2005.  

So how did we do during that week picking stocks?  Well in a word, PHENOMENAL!  (I do not always do so well, but it is nice to have a great week picking stocks don't you think? Please remember that I am an amateur and that past performance is NOT a guarantee of future performance!)  I had two stocks that week, one gained 54.1% and the other gained 371%, for an average appreciation of 212.5%.  What a week that was.  If only investing was always that successful!

Thanks again for visiting!  I am glad to be back blogging and look forward to your comments, questions, and thoughts, at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.  Also, when you get a chance, stop by and visit my Stock Picks Podcast Site where you can also hear me talk about many of the same stocks I write about here on the blog.  Regards!

Bob 


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