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Sunday, 17 September 2006
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of May 16, 2005

 

 

 

 

Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

The weekend is almost over and I wanted to make sure I get to the 'stock pick review' that I have been doing each weekend (unless I get too busy) for the past several years.  I do not think it is enough to just write up some stock ideas and leave it at that.  I owe it to you, the reader, to examine those past selections and find out how they turned out.  I suppose that this continued re-examination of stocks can help me refine my own ideas about what makes a good stock market pick.  

For the sake of this review, I am assuming a buy and hold strategy for these picks.  For my average performance, I am assuming that an equal dollar purchase has been made of all stocks that particular week and that by averaging each stock's performance, I can arrive at some sort of average for the group of investments.  As you probably know, most of the stock picks are not actually purchased by me in my trading portfolio. However, virtually every single stock in there came out of the same process that led me to write the stocks up!  I continue to post my trades...both purchases and sales, and try to update my trading portfolio at intervals as well as going through my actual holdings about every two weeks.

In regards to that 'buy and hold' strategy, as you probably know, if you are a regular reader here, I use a very disciplined trading strategy with all of the stocks that I own.  First of all, I will have only a maximum of 25 positions (currently I am at 11).  My minimum holdings are also limited at 6, although I have never been at that level, I am currently below my maximum # of positions as well.  I only add a new position if I sell a portion of a holding at a targeted gain...currently I use 30, 60, 90, 120%, then 180, 240, 300 and 360%, then 450, 540, 630, 720...etc. as targeted gains.  At each of those targeted price appreciation levels, I am currently selling 1/6th of my remaining shares (I was selling 1/4 of my position until I realized that the size of my positions was dwindling).  When I do sell a stock at a gain, I use that as a signal that the market is 'ripe' for a new position to be added.  

However, when I sell on what I call bad news I don't do anything with the proceeds, what I like to refer to as "sitting on my hands".  Currently bad news sales occur when either there is a fundamental announcement of bad news, or the stock price declines to targeted sale points.  My current targets are at an (8)% loss after a first purchase, break-even if I have sold a portion at the first targeted appreciation (30% gain), or 1/2 of the highest appreciation target achieved.  The final strategy means that if I have sold a portion of a stock three times (that is at 30, 60, and 90% appreciation targets), my targeted sale on the downside would be at 1/2 the 90% appreciation point...or at 45% appreciation, instead of break-even or even at an 8% loss.

The first stock discussed that week was American Healthways (AMHC) that on January 31, 2006, announced a change in name to Healthways (HWAY).  I posted my 'pick' on May 16, 2005, when the stock was trading at $39.42.  HWAY closed at $48.05 on September 15, 2006 for a gain of $8.63 or 21.9%.

On June 26, 2006, HWAY announced 3rd quarter 2006 results.  Revenues climbed 36% to $106.8 million, up from $78.4 million in the prior year same period.  Net income came in at $9.3 million or $.26/diluted share, up from $8.5 million or $.24/diluted share in 2005.  This exceeded analysts' expectations of $.21/share, on $104.6 million in revenue. The company also raised guidance for the full year for earnings of $1.17 to $1.20, up from prior guidance of $1.16 to $1.19/share.  Revenue guidance was unchanged in the range of $415 million to $435 million for the full year.

On May 18, 2005, I posted FactSet Research (FDS) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $31.53.  FDS closed at $47.21 on September 15, 2006, for a gain of $15.68 or 49.7% since posting.  

On June 20, 2006, FactSet reported 3rd quarter fiscal 2006 results.  For the quarter ended May 31, 2006, revenues climbed 24.5% to $98.8 million, from $79.3 million in the same quarter the prior year.  Net income increased to $21.0 million from $19.6 million last year same period.  Diluted earnings per share grew to $.41 up from $.39 the prior year.  

Finally, on May 20, 2005, I posted Kyphon on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $28.85/share.  On September 15, 2006, KYPH closed at $39.27, for a gain of $10.42 or 36.1% since posting.

On July 26, 2006, Kyphon reported 2nd quarter 2006 results.  Revenue for the quarter ended June 30, 2006, totaled $101.1 million, up 35% over the $75.0 million reported in the same quarter the prior year.  Net income for the quarter increased 19% to $9.5 million or $.21/diluted share, up from $7.9 million or $.18/diluted share for the same period last year. 

So how did I do with these three stocks?  In a word, terrific!  I do not think that this performance is accidental but is related to all of the underlying strength of the companies involved.  However, past performance is NO guarantee of future performance, so take this with a grain of salt.  Anyhow, averaging the three stocks, I had an average performance of a gain of 35.9% since posting these stocks a bit over a year ago.

Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting!  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to drop me a line at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com or go ahead and leave your comments on the blog!  Please also visit my Stock Picks Podcast Site and you can hear me talk about many of these same stocks I have been writing about here!

Have a great week everyone!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 8:22 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Sunday, 17 September 2006 9:10 PM CDT

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