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Sunday, 22 October 2006
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of June 20, 2005

 

 

 

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice! As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

It is the weekend (at least for a few more hours!) and it is time for my weekend review!  If you are a regular reader of this blog, you may know that I try to re-examine past stock picks on a regular basis to find out how they turned out and if they are still worthy of inclusion on this blog.  

This review assumes a "buy and hold" strategy, while in fact, I employ a disciplined portfolio management approach, selling my losers quickly and completely and selling my gaining stocks slowly and partially at targeted appreciation points.  This difference in strategy would certainly affect performance.  However, for the ease of evaluation, I assume that I purchased equal dollar amounts of each stock discussed during the week I wrote them up.  Most of the stocks I discuss I have never owned.  Some, however, have been and continue to be part of my investment portfolio.  I try very hard to make sure that I have let you know whether I own each of the stocks discussed.

 On June 20, 2005, I posted Molecular Devices (MDCC) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $21.20.  MDCC closed at $19.03 on October 20, 2006, for a loss of $(2.17) or (10.2)% since posting.

Molecular Devices reported 2nd quarter earnings on July 20, 2006. The company reported a net loss of $(458,000) or $(.03)/share on revenue of $47.3 million.  In the prior year the company had net earnings of $3.7 million or $.21/share.  More recently, the company announced lower guidance for the third-quarter, with earnings of $.12 to $.17/share on revenue of $44 to $46 million.  Analysts had been expecting earnings of $.29/share according to Thomson First Call.  On July 20, 2006, the company had announced guidance of $.22 to $.26/share on revenue of $48 to $52 million.  If raised guidance is bullish for a stock, it is a bearish event when the company reduces guidance!

On June 21, 2005, I posted Somanetics (SMTS) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $22.25.  SMTS closed at $21.97 on October 20, 2006, for a loss of $(.28) or (1.3)% since posting.

On September 18, 2006, Somanetics announced 3rd quarter 2006 results.  Revenue for the quarter increased 50% to $7.9 million from the $5.2 million reported in the same quarter in 2005.  Net income increased to $1.9 million or $.13/diluted share, up from $994,147 or $.08/share in the same period a year earlier. In the same earnings report the company raised guidance to $.47 to $.49/share from previous guidance of $.40 to $.42/diluted share for fiscal 2006.

So how did I do with these two stock picks from last year?  In a word, mediocre.  For these two stocks, I had an average loss of (5.75)%.  

Thanks again for stopping by!  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com or leave your words right on the blog.  Also, be sure to stop by and visit my Stock Picks Podcast Site where you can hear me talk about many of the same stocks I write about!  Wishing you all a profitable week in the market!

Bob 

 

 


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