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Saturday, 23 December 2006
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of August 22, 2005

 

 

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

I am trying to get things together to go out to a Christmas party this evening, but let me see if I can get this review up before I head out :).  And by the way, once again let me wish all of my friends a Merry Christmas, a Happy Hanukkah, and Seasons Greetings....my best for 2007 for all of you!

This review assumes a "buy and hold" strategy.  In practice, I advocate and utilize a disciplined portfolio management approach that requires me to sell my positions completely on small losses and partially at targeted appreciation points.  This difference would certainly affect the performance of any investor.  I employ this "buy and hold" approach for the review simply because it is the easiest and most practical way for me to review my past stock selections.

On August 22, 2006, I posted Moody's (MCO) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $49.37.  Moody's closed at $70.08 on December 22, 2006, for a gain of $20.71 or 41.9% since posting.

On October 25, 2006, Moody's reported 3rd quarter 2006 results.  For the quarter ended September 30, 2006, revenue came in at $495.5 million, an increase of 18% from the $421.1 million in the same quarter in 2005.  Net income came in at $157 million, up from $146.6 million last year, or $.55/diluted share, up from $.48/diluted share a year ago in the same period.  This quarterly result beat analysts' expectations of revenue of $471.8 million for the quarter and earnings of $.52/share.


On August 24, 2005, I posted Giant Industries on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $41.72. Giant Industries (GI) closed at $75.75 on December 22, 2006, for a gain of $34.03 or 81.6% since posting.  It should be noted that I first posted Giant on Stock Picks Bob's Advice on February 11, 2004.  Unfortunately, I didn't list the price that day, but using Yahoo "historic quotes" we can find past stock prices, and adjusted for any stock splits, GI closed at $15.94 on February 11, 2004, which would give us an effective gain of $59.81 or a 375.2% gain since that original post in 2004!  I did own some shares for a short period of time but did end up getting shaken out of that position.  Too bad!

Giant Industries reported 3rd quarter 2006 results on November 14, 2006. Sales for the quarter rose slightly to $1.17 billion from $1.09 billion in the same quarter last year.  Net income, however, dropped to $44 million or $3/share, down from $46.6 million or $3.38/share last year.  However, this reduced earnings exceeded analysts expectations of $2.47/share. 


On August 25, 2005, I posted Coldwater Creek (CWTR) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $29.81.  CWTR split 3:2 on 1/17/06, making my effective stock pick price actually $19.87.  CWTR closed at $24.98 on 12/22/06, for an effective stock pick appreciation of $5.11 or 25.7% since posting.

Coldwater Creek announced 3rd quarter 2006 results on November 21, 2006.  Net sales for fiscal 2006 third quarter climbed 37.2% to $256.4 million from $186.8 million in the same quarter last year.  Net income jumped 51.8% to $15.9 million in the quarter or $.17/diluted share, up from $10.5 million or $.11/diluted share in the same quarter last year. Comparable store sales during the quarter were quite strong growing 9.9% for the three months ended October 28, 2006.  This demonstrated an acceleration in growth as same store sales had increased 6.8% in the prior-year same period.

Finally, for the last stock pick that week, I selected Lifeway (LWAY) for Stock Picks Bob's Advice on August 26, 2006, when it was trading at $16.18.  LWAY had a 2:1 stock split on August 16, 2006, making my effective stock pick price actually $8.09.  With Lifeway closing at $9.49 on December 22, 2006, this makes my effective pick appreciation actually $1.40/share or 17.3% since posting. (The 2005 Lifeway "pick" was actually a "revisit" as I first posted Lifeway on Stock Picks Bob's Advice on August 21, 2003, when the stock was trading at $14.51/share.  Adjusting that pick price for two subsequent 2:1 stock splits, gives me an effective price of actually $3.63/share.  Thus, with the $9.49 close on 12/22/06, this makes that original stock pick showing an appreciation of $5.86 or 161.4% since the original post in 2003!)

On November 14, 2006, Lifeway reported 3rd quarter 2006 results.  Third quarter revenues (without Helios Nutrition results) climbed 26% to $6.56 million, from last year's revenue of $5.20 million.  Operating income climbed 22% in the third quarter compared with prior year operating income.  No per share amounts were noted in the report.

So how did I do with these four stocks from that week in August, 2005?  In a word, TERRIFIC!  All four showed appreciation with an average gain of 41.6%.  Now, if only I had purchased and held on to all four of those stocks!  

Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog!  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave your feedback right on the blog or you can email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.  Also, be sure and visit my Stock Picks Podcast Website where I talk about many of the same stocks and issues I address in the blog.

Wishing all of you a very happy and healthy holiday season and New Year!

Bob 


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 6:37 PM CST | Post Comment | View Comments (1) | Permalink
Updated: Sunday, 24 December 2006 12:00 AM CST

Tuesday, 2 January 2007 - 4:39 PM CST

Name: "mrmike"
Home Page: http://www.yourtradingstock.com

CWTR has been on fire the last two years.  I have a good time trading this one, as it can really be volatile at times.

Your analysis looks good.  I just wonder how much room it has to the upside here after the return it's produced in such a short time.   

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