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Saturday, 6 January 2007
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of August 29, 2005

 

 

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice.  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website. 

I had a very busy New Year's weekend!  I hope you all have made and are still keeping your many New Year's resolutions.  As for me, I have just started a new diet.  (Is that the most common resolution or what?)  Wish me well.  The real secret will be whether I can keep off the weight I take off after getting there.  

So I didn't get around to my usual reviews this weekend.  I know it is Tuesday already, but the market is closed in honor of the recently deceased President Ford whose funeral is today in Grand Rapids.  (I am a big fan of Grand Rapids, Michigan, as I lived there for two years, up on the Heritage Hill section for part of the time, and down by the airport in Kentwood, I believe the suburb was called for the other part of the time.)  I am not sure if you all are interested in this kind of information, but isn't this what a blog is all about?  More than just numbers I guess.  

But let me get to the reviews.

There were three stocks I discussed on that particular week in 2005.  My review assumes a "buy and hold" approach; in reality, I advocate, and practice a disciplined portfolio management strategy in which I sell my declining stocks quickly at 8% losses, and sell my gaining stocks slowly and partially at targeted price levels.  This difference in strategy would certainly affect one's actual investing experience, and I would encourage all of you to of course take that into consideration.

I wrote up Biosite (BSTE) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $59.90/share on August 29, 2005.  BSTE closed at $55.06 on January 5, 2007, for a loss of $(4.84) or (8.1)% since posting.  I first wrote up Biosite on this blog on June 25, 2003, when the stock was trading essentially at the same price as it is today, at $48.15/share. 

On October 26, 2006, Biosite reported 3rd quarter 2006 results.  Revenues for the quarter ended September 30, 2006, totaled $74.6 million, up 7% from the $69.7 million reported in the same quarter in 2005.  However, GAAP diluted earnings per share came in at $.49, compared with GAAP diluted earnings per share in 2005 of $.68.  Net income came in at $9.04 million, down (28)% from the $12.6 million reported in the previous year.


On August 31, 2005, I posted Building Materials Holding (BMHC) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $93.48.  Building Materials (which now trades on the NYSE with a symbol of BLG split 2:1 on March 15, 2006, making my effective stock pick price actually $46.74.  BLG closed at $23.80 on 1/5/07, for a loss of $(22.94) or (49.1)%.

On October 24, 2006, Building Materials reported 3rd quarter 2006 results.  Sales for the third quarter increased 1% to $831 million from $820 million in the same quarter the prior year.  Net income, however, came in at $35.3 million or $1.20/share, down from $41.6 million, or $1.40/share in the year-earlier same quarter. 


The third stock I "picked" that week in 2005 was Cavco Industries (CVCO) which was posted on September 1, 2005, when it was trading at $36.00/share.  CVCO closed at $33.16/share on January 5, 2007, for a loss of $(2.84) or (7.9)% since posting.

On October 19, 2006, Cavco reported 2nd quarter 2007 results.  Net sales for the quarter ended September 30, 2006, declined 8.6% to $43.1 million down from $47.1 million in the same quarter in the second quarter of 2006 fiscal year.  Net income was $3.2 million, down 8.5% from $3.5 million in the preceding year same quarter.  Net income per diluted share was $.49 vs. $.52/share last year. 

So how did I do that particular week in August and September, 2005?  In a word,  mediocre if not worse!  ALL three stocks declined between original posting and today!  Assuming an equal dollar purchase of each of the three stocks, and a buy-and-hold strategy, this would have resulted in an average loss of (21.7)% for the three stocks!  

What can I say?  Not much except that this posting is a good way to start out the New Year with a touch of humility!  There is nothing magic about what I write about!  It is important to always limit your losses to a small amount so as not to let them accumulate, it is important to be monitoring your holdings frequently, it is important to check with your professional investment advisors regarding all of the stocks discussed on this blog as I am an amateur investor!

Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting!  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.  If you get a chance, stop by and visit my Stock Picks Podcast site wherre I discuss some of the many stocks and strategies I write about here on the blog!

Happy New Year everyone!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 12:01 AM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Saturday, 6 January 2007 3:40 PM CST

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