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Saturday, 13 January 2007
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of September 5, 2005

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

 

 

 

It is the weekend (at last!) and time to look back at stock picks from the past.  I have been asked why I say looking back a year and then go back and review a year and a quarter or so.....well the answer is obvious.  I am an amateur, and although I started out reviewing each weekend, well you know how that goes....some weekends I really do get so busy I cannot blog!  And then it is a little more than a year.  And so on.

While this blog is somewhat disorganized and virtually a flow of consciousness sometimes, there really is a method to all of this madness.  If you are new to the blog, I apologize so bear with me.  What I am trying to accomplish is to simultaneous present stocks that with my own peculiar screening techniques, appear to be 'investable'.  I call these my 'vocabulary' of stocks.  It is from these stocks that I am building my own portfolio.

And that is another task for me.  Using my own techniques to build an actual trading portfolio that I share with you the reader.  And sharing with you my thinking, my rationale, my successes and my failures.  

Scattered among these posts and thoughts I have been developing a very disciplined trading strategy that allows me to decide when to buy, when to sell, and when to simply 'sit on my hands'.  So all of these posts and comments are simultaneously being done on the blog.  Please do email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com if you have any comments or questions.  I try to read every email I receive and comment on most.  But if you do write or comment, please be sure to give me at least a first name and a geographic area.  It makes everything more personal and interesting.

But back to today's post.   Last week I reviewed the stocks from the week of August 29, 2005.  Going to the next week, let's spend some time looking at the ideas I was generating here on the blog during the week of September 5, 2005.

This review assumes a "buy and hold" strategy with equal $'s being invested in each of the stocks discussed.  However, in practice, I employ a very disciplined selling technique that cuts losses quickly at 8% levels and directs me to sell portions of my existing holdings as they appreciate and reach pre-set targeted levels.  This certainly would affect actual performance but for the sake of this analysis, it is easier to simply evaluate past stock picks without assuming any trading response to price change at all.

On September 6, 2005, I posted Nordstrom (JWN) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $35.01.  Nordstrom closed at $54.82 on January 12, 2007, for a gain of $19.81 or 56.6% since posting. 

On November 20, 2006, Nordstrom reported 3rd quarter 2006 results.   Total sales for the third quarter of 2006 ended October 28, 2006, increased 12.4% to $1.9 billion, compared to sales of $1.7 billion in the same quarter last year. Same-store sales for the quarter climbed a strong 10.7%.  Net earnings came in at $135.7 million or $.52/diluted share up from $107.5 million or $.39/diluted share last year.  This was a very strong report!


On September 9, 2005, I posted Global Payments on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $68.89. Global  Payments (GPN) had a 2:1 stock split on October 31, 2005, giving me an effective 'pick price' of $34.45.  GPN closed at $38.65 on January 12, 2007, for a gain of $4.20 or 12.2% since posting.

On January 5, 2007, GPN reported 2nd quarter 2007 results.  For the quarter ended November 30, 2006, revenue increased 19% to $260.7 million from $219.7 million in the prior year same period.  GAAP earnings per share came in at $.42/share, up from $.37/share the prior year.  The company spent some time sorting out the effect of accounting for options expenses which otherwise would have had the company coming in at $.44/share, but I shall stick with GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) for the purpose of this blog.

The company did put a damper on future expectations, a bearish inclusion, stating:

"Based on our first half results and our second half expectations, we are reaffirming the low end of our annual fiscal 2007 revenue guidance of $1,057 million, and reducing the high end of this guidance to $1,069 million. This revenue guidance reflects an expected 16 percent to 18 percent growth versus $908 million in fiscal 2006."

The stock price sold off with this announcement which lowered rather than raised guidance.

So how did I do for these two stocks during that week in September, 2005?  In a word 'great'!  Both stocks appreciated with Nordstrom showing the stronger gain.  The average performance for the two stocks was a gain of 34.4%.

Thanks again for visiting!  Please remember that I am an amateur and that past performance is certainly no guarantee for future performance!  If you have any comments or questions, I look forward to receiving them at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com and also feel free to leave them right on the blog!  If you get a chance, be sure and visit my Stock Picks Podcast Site.

Bob 


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