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Sunday, 21 January 2007
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of September 12, 2005

 

 

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

The weekend is almost over.  Earlier today I had this entry almost completely finished and if you can believe it (it is true) I started closing windows looking for a chart I had downloaded on my desktop, and as you would figure, I closed the rough draft before I had published it....so let's start from scratch on this one once again. Come on guys, when I tell you I am an amateur, well you ought to believe it!  

If you are new to the blog, well, make yourself at home and look around.  What I like to do on the blog is pick stocks (what else did you think?) and as a matter of honesty, and straight-forwardness (is that a word?), I like to take some time each weekend and look back a year and find out how those particular stocks turned out.  This analysis assumes a "buy and hold" approach to investing with equal dollar amounts being purchased of the stocks discussed.  In reality, I practice and advocate a disciplined portfolio management that directs me to sell losing stocks quickly on small losses and to sell gaining stocks slowly and partially at targeted appreciation levels.

Let's take a look at the stocks I discussed during the week of September 12, 2005, and find out how they would have turned out if they were indeed purchased!

On September 12, 2005, I posted Oakley (OO) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice at a price of $18.16.  Oakley closed at $22.75 on January 19, 2007, for an effective stock pick gain of $4.59 or 25.3%.

On October 19, 2006, Oakley reported 3rd quarter 2006 results.  For the quarter ended September 30, 2006, net sales increased 21.2% to $210.2 million, up from $173.4 million in the same quarter last year.  Net income came in at $17.3 million or $.25/diluted share, up from $16.1 million or $.23/diluted share the prior year same period.

Oakley (OO) beat expectations of $.22/share earnings on revenue of $192 million.  In addition, the company raised guidance for revenue growth to 15 to 17% from prior guidance of an increase of 13%.  Thus, the company showed strong revenue growth, earnings growth, beat expectations, and raised guidance.  Everything contributing to what I call a "trifecta-plus" in earnings reports!

Here is the chart showing recent price activity and identifying my "pick" point:

On September 16, 2005, I posted Marine Products (MPX) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $12.10.  MPX closed at $9.58 on January 19, 2007, for a loss of $(2.52) or (20.8)% since posting.

On October 25, 2006, Marine Products announced 3rd quarter 2006 results.   For the quarter ended September 30, 2006, Marine Products reported net sales of $64.0 million a 1.6% decrease compared to the $65.0 million in the same quarter last year.  Net income was $4.6 million a 37.2% decrease from the $7.3 million reported in the same period last year.

If we look at the chart on Marine Products from StockCharts.com, and my point of entry, you can see that I did pick the stock when it was already showing some technical weakness.  Clearly I need to look closer at these charts as I present stocks.  Perhaps this one could have been avoided (?).

Well how did I do in that week in September, 2005, with these two 'picks'.  Basically it was a wash with one stock moving higher and the other lower.  In fact, the average performance of these two stocks was a gain of 2.25%.

Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog!  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.  If you get a chance, be sure and visit my Stock Picks Podcast Website where I discuss some of the many stocks I write about right here!

Have a great week trading everyone!

Bob 


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 10:41 PM CST | Post Comment | View Comments (2) | Permalink
Updated: Sunday, 21 January 2007 10:47 PM CST

Monday, 22 January 2007 - 5:19 PM CST

Name: "Ben"
Home Page: http://www.dukebasketballreport.com

Two comments:

  1. I'm curious what you think about this slate.com article which attempts to show that after costs, it is almost impossible to beat the market: http://www.slate.com/id/2158085/
  2. With that 23% gain on Oakley, I recommend selling a chunk of your position and purchasing a pair of glasses for yourself.  If you don't wear sunglasses, I'm sure your son will love them!

Go Devils!

 -Ben

Tuesday, 23 January 2007 - 2:47 PM CST

Name: "Robert Freedland"
Home Page: http://bobsadviceforstocks.tripod.com/bobsadviceforstoc

"Ben" wrote:

Two comments:

  1. I'm curious what you think about this slate.com article which attempts to show that after costs, it is almost impossible to beat the market: http://www.slate.com/id/2158085/
  2. With that 23% gain on Oakley, I recommend selling a chunk of your position and purchasing a pair of glasses for yourself. If you don't wear sunglasses, I'm sure your son will love them!

Go Devils!

-Ben

Ben,

That is a great question.  I like it enough that I want to make a complete entry on it.  By the way, I never have owned any Oakley Stock.  It is just a stock I discussed on the blog.  So I shall not be able to buy my son a pair of Oakley's on the gain from this pick.

Dad

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