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Saturday, 27 January 2007
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of September 19, 2005

 

 

 

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

Once again I ask myself where the week went and here it is Saturday afternoon and I need to get around to reviewing some past stock picks!  Each weekend, I try to review stocks from consecutive weeks on the blog.  These reviews assume a "buy and hold" strategy and estimate what might have happened if I had bought equal $ amounts of each of the stocks discussed that week. 

In reality, I advocate and employ a disciplined management strategy which involves selling losing stocks quickly and completely at small 8% losses, and selling my gaining stocks slowly and partially at targeted appreciation levels.  This difference in strategy would certainly affect investment returns.

I have started including "point & figure" charts on each of the stocks reviewed with the point of the "pick" identified for review.  My "thumbs-up" or "thumbs-down" is a simple assessment on each earnings report.  I simply require increased revenue and earnings for each pick to get that "thumbs-up".  It does not mean that I believe that the stock is still a good investment; this just indicates my basic reaction to the earnings news.

Let's take a look at those three stocks which were reviewed during that week in September, 2005.  Much of my attention at that time was directed to New Orleans and Katrina where I had many of my wife's family affected.  It is hard to believe that so much time has now passed and so little has been done to assist that once great American city. But that is another story for another blog.

On September 21, 2005, I posted FedEx (FDX) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $83.15.  FedEx closed at $109.89 on January 26, 2007, for a gain of $26.74 or 32.2% since posting.


On December 20, 2006, FedEx reported 2nd quarter 2007 results.  Revenue for the quarter came in at $8.93 billion, up 10% from $8.09 billion in the same quarter last year.  Net income came in at $511 million, up 8% from the $471 million last year.  Earnings came in at $1.64/share (including one time expenses), up from $1.53/diluted share last year.

On September 22, 2005, I "revisited" Comtech Telecommunications (CMTL) when it was trading at $40.65.  CMTL closed at $35.00 on January 26, 2007, for a loss of $(5.65) or (13.9)% since posting.

On December 4, 2006, Comtech (CMTL) announced 1st quarter 2007 results.  Although beating expectations, sales for the quarter decreased to $97.1 million from $106.6 million in the same quarter last year. GAAP Net income was $10.8 million or $.41/diluted share for the quarter ended October 31, 2006, down from $11.5 million or $.43/share in the same quarter last year.

Finally, on September 23, 2005, I "revisited" Thor Industries (THO) when it was trading at $33.41.  Thor closed at $45.71 on January 26, 2007, for a gain of $12.30 or 36.8% since posting.


On November 27, 2006, Thor reported 1st quarter 2007 results. For the quarter ended October 31, 2006, sales dropped 4% to $727.7 million from $761.3 million in the same quarter the prior year.  Net income was $32.6 million down 25% from last year's $43.4 million.  Earnings came in at $.59/share down from $.77/share.

So how did I do with these three stocks?  Well, two made nice gains and one had a loss for an average gain of 18.4%.  Not too shabby actually!

Anyhow, I have to run!  So have a great weekend everyone and drop me a line at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com or simply leave your questions or comments right on the blog.

Bob

 

 


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