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Sunday, 28 January 2007
Morningstar (MORN) "Weekend Trading Portfolio Analysis"

 

 

 

 

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website. 

I try to do several things on this blog.  And unfortunately, as an amateur the organization here could be improved :).  But one of the important things I like to do is to share with you my actual trading portfolio, the buys, the sales, the successes and the failures.  It is through this that I maintain the discipline to continue with my grand investing experiment.  It is knowledge that I am responsible to all of you that has motivated me to continue to exercise discipline in my trades.

Besides reporting on my trades, I like to examine a position in my portfolio every 2 to 3 weeks.   On January 6, 2007, I discussed my Kyphon Holding on Stock Picks.  Going alphabetically through the stocks I own in this portfolio brings me to Morningstar (MORN). 

I purchased 200 shares of Morningstar stock (MORN) on 11/22/05 at a price of $32.57/share.  I posted a review of Morningstar that same day on the blog. 

On February 16, 2006, I sold 1/6th of my position or 33 shares when the stock was trading at  $42.94/share for a gain of $10.37 or 31.8% since my purchase.  Morningstar closed at $46.02 on January 26, 2007, for a gain of $13.45 or 41.3% on my remaining 167 shares of MORN.

As per my plans, I will be selling all of my remaining shares if the stock declines to the purchase price or $32.57/share.  On the upside, I plan on selling 1/6th of my remaining shares or 27 shares if the stock should appreciate to a 60% gain or 1.60 x $32.57 = $52.11/share. 

Let's take another look at this stock and see if it still fits into the criteria I use on this blog.

What exactly does this company do?

According to the Yahoo "Profile" on Morningstar, the company

"...provides independent investment research to investors worldwide. It offers Internet, software, and print-based products for individual investors, financial advisors, and institutional clients, as well as asset management services to advisors and institutions. It operates in three segments: Individual, Advisor, and Institutional."

How did they do in the latest quarter?

On November 2, 2006, Morningstar reported 3rd quarter 2006 results. Revenue for the quarter ended September 30, 2006, came in at $81.8 million, a 44% increase from the $56.9 million reported in the third quarter of 2005.  Net income was also up strongly at $13.5 million, or $.29/diluted share, up from $7.5 million or $.17/diluted share in the prior year same period.  The company beat expectations of $.28/share.

What do their longer-term financial results look like?

Reviewing the Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated" financials (!) on Morningstar, we can see that revenue has steadily increased from $91 million in 2001 to $227 million in 2005 and $289 million in the trailing twelve months (TTM)

Earnings, which were showing losses from 2001 to 2003, turned positive in 2004 at $.21/share, increased to $.70/share in 2005 and $1.04 in the TTM.

No dividend is paid and the number of shares has been fairly steady with 39 million in 2001 and 39 million in 2005, with a slight increase to 42 million in the TTM.

Free cash flow has been positive and growing with $21 million in 2003 increasing to $41 million in 2005 and $81 million in the TTM.

The balance sheet looks solid with  cash of $124.3 million and $64.7 million of other current assets, a total of $189 million in current assets is enough to pay off both the $148.3 million in current liabilities and the $8.6 million in long-term liabilities combined.  The current ratio works out to a healthy 1.27.

What about some valuation numbers?

Checking the Yahoo "Key Statistics" on Morningstar, we can see that this is a mid cap stock with a market capitalization of $1.92 billion.  The trailing p/e is rich at 44.29, with a forward p/e (fye 31-Dec-07) estimated at 31.09.  No PEG ratio is reported.

Reviewing the Fidelity.com eresearch site for some valuation numbers, we can see that the Price/Sales (TTM) ratio is a bit rich at 6.53 relative to the industry average of 2.81.  Profitability, however, is higher than the average with a Return on Equity (TTM) of 23.14%, compared to the industry average of 12.06%.

Finishing up with Yahoo, we find that there are 41.77 million shares outstanding with 10.26 million shares that float.  As of 1/9/07 there were 834,920 shares out short representing 7.3% of the float or 12.1 trading days of volume.  Using my '3 day rule' on short interest, this 12 days of short interest has the potential of a short 'squeeze' if Morningstar can report another quarter of earnings results ahead of estimates.  That announcement should be out relatively soon, and it will be interesting to observe the results.

Finally, as noted, no stock dividends and no stock splits are reported on Yahoo.

What does the chart look like?

Reviewing the "Point and Figure" chart from StockCharts.com on Morningstar, we can see that the stock moved strongly higher from the $19 level in May, 2005 to a high of $4 in May, 2006.  However, the stock corrected after that, pulling to a low of $33 in August, 2006.  Since then the stock has broken through resistance and is trading once again just under its high at $46.02.

Summary: What do I think about Morningstar?

As you know, this is a holding in my Trading Portfolio.  Even so, I like this stock.  I use the Morningstar.com website regularly for these analyses.  Besides that, the latest quarterly report was very strong, the Morningstar.com 5-yr page is solid, valuation is a bit rich, and the chart looks just fine to me!  I shall sit tight with my holdings; waiting for either an additional sale at a gain or a retracement and sale.  

Thanks again for stopping by! I hope these discussions of different stocks is helpful to you!  I would love to hear more from readers of this blog.  You can leave comments under each entry or drop me a line at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.   If you get a chance, drop by and visit my Stock Picks Podcast site! Have a wonderful week!

Bob 


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 3:33 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink

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