Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice! As always please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisors prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.
A couple of months ago I started a new entry called "long-term review". These are an examination of my earlies stock picks. This blog started back on May 12, 2003, and since then I have posted over 1,300 entries. To get a better feeling about how these stock picks are doing, I am trying to review these picks in order and see how they are doing today. Some of these stocks have been acquired or are otherwise no longer publicly traded. I shall be restricting myself to those stocks which still trade for the purposes of this review. also for these reviews, I plan on restricting myself to the latest quarterly report, the Morningstar.com evaluation, and a point and figure chart.
On May 14, 2003, I posted HealthExtras (HLEX) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice. This is what I wrote:
"Wednesday, 14 May 2003
May 14, 2003 HealthExtras
It is 10 minutes before the close of trading and scanning the list again a new name has popped up for consideration. I do not own this stock and am not currently planning to purchase it....but may in the future! HealthExtras...at $5.70 up $.77 or 15.62%. Wow....a blazing pop in this small (!) company. Looking at the news....through Yahoo....we find that earnings were just reported...revenue of 91.7 million, a 68% increase over the prior year and net income of $1.9 million....a 221% increase from the prior year (!). Company is in pharmacy benefit management...as everyone knows a very HOT area...just listen to the politicians talking about benefits for seniors, etc. Checking out Morningstar, we find sequential growth in revenue....from 5.3 million in 1999, 44.2 million in 2000, 124.4 million in 2001, and 226 million for the trailing 12 months. What is there NOT to like? Probably SHOULD buy this myself....but for now....my portfolio is FULL..and will buy only when one of my stocks hits the 40-50% gain I am planning on....then can add a new position. Good luck. Bob
P.S. the symbol for this one is HLEX....tell me what you think."
HLEX closed at $24.92 on January 26, 2007, for a gain on that pick of $19.22 or 337.2% since posting. I do not own any shares or options on this stock.
How did they do in the latest quarter?
On November 6, 2006, HealthExtras reported 2006 3rd quarter results. Revenues for the third quarter 2006 totaled $363.1 million, a 118% incrrease over 3rd quarter 2005 results of $166.8 million. Net income worked out to $8.8 million, or $.21/share, up 40% from comparable 3rd quarter 2005 earnings of $6.3 million or $.15/share. The company failed to meet expectations of $.23/share on revenue of $363.9 million.
How about longer-term results?
Looking at the Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated" financials on HLEX, we can see that revenue has steadily increased from $118 million in 2001 to $695 million in 2005 and $860 million in the trailing twelve months (TTM).
Earnings, which were at a loss of $(.23)/share in 2001, turned profitable at $.42/share in 2002, dipped to $.30/share in 2003, but have improved steadily since with $.45/share in 2004, $.56/share in 2005 and $.56/share in the TTM.
The company has been issuing shares with 29 million shares in 2001, 39 million in 2005 and 41 million in the TTM. While increasing shares by about 50%, they have actually increased revenue by more than 400% during that time period.
Free cash flow is positive with $23 million in 2003 and $27 million in 2005 with $19 million in the TTM.
The balance sheet looks good to me with $69.9 million in cash and $125.8 million in other current assets. This combined $195.7 million in current assets is more than adequate to cover both the $115.3 million in current liabilities and the $15.2 million in long-term debt combined.
What does the chart look like?
Looking at the "Point & Figure" chart on HLEX, we can see the steady increase in price from $3.75 in 2002 to a high of $37 in March, 2006. The stock has pulled back since but appears to have additional strength.
Summary: What do I think about this stock?
Let's summarize a few things. Basically they had a terrific recent quarter, although expectations were so high that they failed to mee the even higher expectations. This early pick has been a great one for me with the stock moving steadily higher the past several years.
If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at email@example.com.