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Saturday, 17 February 2007
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of October 3, 2005

 

 

 

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

It is once again the weekend, and last weekend I never did get around to reviewing prior stock picks.  So now I am another week behind that 'year' :(.  So let's get this review going before I crash for the night!  

I try to do a lot of different things on this website.  First of all, I like to present stocks that I find worthy of consideration for investment and I like to share with you the reasons I have concluded this.  In addition, I actually share with you my trading portfolio, letting you know how and when I have made decisions.  In order to determine if my strategy is working, and if it needs adjustment I also like to review past stock picks and find out how they would have turned out if I had indeed purchased shares.  I review lots of different stocks, but only have the resources to purchase a few!

This review assumes a buy and hold strategy.  In practice, I recommend and I also employ a disciplined trading strategy that requires me to sell losing stocks quickly and completely on small losses and sell gaining stocks slowly and partially at targeted appreciation levels.  Certainly, this difference in strategy will greatly affect outcomes.  For the purpose of this review, and for the ease of calculation, I assume equal dollar purchases of each stock 'picked' during that particular week, and a 'buy and hold' strategy employed to determine the 'performance'.  Please take these differences into consideration as you go over my review.

On October 3, 2005, I "picked" NutriSystem (NUTRI) for Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $26.63.  NTRI closed at $49.00 on February 16, 2007, for a gain of $22.37 or 84% since posting.

On February 14, 2007, NutriSystem reported 4th quarter 2006 results.  For the quarter ended December 31, 2006, revenue increased 92% to $133.6 million, from $69.6 million in the same quarter in 2005.  Net income jumped 213% to $19.6 million or $.53/diluted share, compared with net income of $6.3 million or $.17/diluted share in the fourth quarter of 2005.

The company beat expectations handily.  Analysts expected fourth-quarter earnings of $.51/share (the company came in at $.53) on revenue of $130.9 million (the company reported revenue of $133.6 million).

In the same report, the company also raised guidance both for the upcoming quarter as well as all of fiscal 2007.  They forecast first quarter earnings of $.88 to $.92/share on revenue of $205 million.  (Analysts are currently expecting first quarter earnings of $.85/share on sales of $208.3 million).  For the full year, the company guided to earnings of $3.00 to $3.10/share on revenue of $720 million.  (Analysts had been expecting earnings of $2.89/share on $739.9 million in revenue.)  Thus the guidance was mixed: raised for earnings and actually guiding lower for revenue.  

Looking at the "Point & Figure" chart on NutriSystem from StockCharts.com, we can see that the stock has recently pulled back from its short-term highs:

On October 4, 2005, I posted IRIS International (IRIS) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $20.97.  IRIS closed at $11.73 on February 16, 2007, for a loss of $(9.24) or (44.1)% since posting.

On November 14, 2006, Iris reported 3rd quarter 2006 results, for the quarter ended September 30, 2006.   Revenue for the quarter came in at $18 million, up 13% from the $16 million reported in the same quarter in 2005.  Net income for the quarter came in at $800,000 or $.04/diluted share, down from $1.5 million or $.09/diluted share in the 2005 same quarter. 

Looking at the "Point & Figure" chart on Iris from StockCharts.com, we can see how the stock climbed to $28/share in August, 2005, only to break through support at $16 and trade lower.  In fact the stock is coming off its recent low of $8.00/share at $11.73, still well below its resistance level.

Summary: How did I do with these picks from the week of October 3, 2005?

Well, my NTRI stock pick moved sharply higher, while my IRIS pick moved in the opposite direction :(.  Thus, the average of the two stocks was a gain of 20.0%.  Not too shabby after all :).

Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog! Please remember that past performance is no guarantee of future price moves.  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.  If you get a chance, be sure and visit my Stock Picks Podcast Site where I discuss some of the many stocks I write about on the blog.

Bob


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