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Tuesday, 20 February 2007
VASCO Data Security International (VDSI) "Revisiting a Stock Pick"

Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any decisions based on information on this website.

If you read the latest two entries, you might think that I don't like any stocks that readers write to me about.  That really isn't true.  I first became aware of one of my current holdings when a good friend of mine, George K. emailed me about Precision Castparts.  The rest, as they say, is history.  Last year, on January 31, 2006, Sean G., another reader of this blog, wrote in to ask me about Vasco Data Security (VDSI).  I wrote up both of these stocks and I generally did like what I read about.  And it was because of my work a year ago, that when the stock came up again today, it made sense to write about it once more.

Looking through the list of the top % gainers on the NASDAQ today, I saw that VASCO (VDSI) had made the list, closing at $18.45, up $3.32 or 21.94% on the day.  A year ago, when I wrote up Vasco on January 31, 2006, the stock was trading at $10.75.  Thus, the stock has appreciated 71.6% since the original post a little over a year ago.  I do not own any shares, nor do I have any options on this stock.

What exactly does this company do?

According to the Yahoo "Profile" on VASCO, the company

"...through its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, marketing, and support of open standards-based hardware and software security systems that manage and secure access to information assets worldwide. It offers patented �Strong User Authentication� products for e-business and e-commerce, which enable secure financial transactions to be made over private enterprise networks and public networks, such as the Internet. Its product line includes, Digipass and VACMAN."

How did they do in the latest quarter?

This morning, prior to the opening of trading, VASCO announced 4th quarter 2006 results.  For the quarter ended December 31, 2006, revenues increased 44% to $25.2 million from $17.5 million in the same quarter in 2005.  Net income for the quarter came in at $5.1 million or $.13/diluted share, up sharply from $3.0 million or $.08/diluted share in the same period last year. 

The company beat expectations for earnings; analysts had been expecting $.11/share, and the company came in at $.13.  The company did come in a little light on revenue; analysts expected $25.7 million and the company came in at $25.2 million.   At the same time, the company forecast an optimistic picture of revenue growth of 35-45%.  This was enough to push the stock price sharply higher today.

What about longer-term financial results?

Looking at the Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated" financials on VDSI, we find that revenue growth, which dipped from $23 million in 2001 to $17 million in 2002, subsequently steadily and strongly increased to $55 million in 2005 and $68 million in the trailing twelve months (TTM). The company reported a loss of $(.06)/share in 2003, turned profitable at $.09/share in 2004, and came in at $.21/share in 2005 and $.28/share in theTTM.

There were 29 million shares in 2003.  By the TTM, the number of shares had increased by almost a third to 37 million, however, during this same period of time, revenue was up almost 200% from $23 million in 2003  to $68 million in the TTM. This does not appear to be a significant dilution in company stock.

Free cash flow is positive and growing the past few years.  $2 million in 2003 increased to $7 million in 2005 and $11 million in the TTM.

As reported by Morningstar.com, the balance sheet appears solid with $23.5 million in cash, which by itself could easily cover the combined $16.5 million in current liabilities and the $.7 million in long-term liabilities combined. Calculating the current ratio, the company has a total of $40.6 million in current assets, which when compared to the $16.5 million in current liabilities, works out to a 'healthy' 2.46 ratio.

What about some valuation numbers?

Checking the Yahoo "Key Statistics" on VDSI, we find that the market cap is a mid cap $673.59 million.  The trailing p/e is a rich 66.61 with a forward p/e (fye 31-Dec-07) estimated at 41.93.  The PEG ratio is a bit rich at 1.53.  (Generally 1.0 to 1.5 are reasonable PEG's imho).

Reviewing the Fidelity.com eresearch website, we find that VDSI has a Price/Sales ratio (TTM) of 8.04, well ahead of the industry average of 5.55.  It should be noted that the company is more profitable than average with a 'return on equity'(TTM) of 35.08%.  This is significantly higher than the industry average of 21.12%.

Finishing up on Yahoo, we find that there are 36.51 million shares outstanding with 26.40 million that float.  As of 1/9/07, there were 2.62 million shares out short representing 9.8% of the float or 5.5 trading days of volume.  With the solid earnings report today, the 'naysayers' might have gotten "squeezed" with the stock price rising as the short-sellers scrambled to pick up shares to cover their already 'pre-sold' stock!

No cash dividend and no stock splits are reported on Yahoo.

What does the chart look like?

Looking at a "Point & Figure" chart on VDSI from StockCharts.com, we can see that while the stock price was actually declining back through nearly all of 2002 and the first few months of 2003, the stock actually hit a low at $.25/share in 2003, only to climb sharply higher to the current $18.50 level.  The chart looks strong to me!

Summary:  What do I think about this stock?

Reviewing a few of the points I made above, the company came in today with a strong financial report.  They have been growing nicely the past several years with steady revenue, earnings, and free cash flow with a very solid balance sheet.  However, the stock price is fairly rich with a p/e in the 60's, a Price/Sales higher than the average company in its industrial group, and a chart that looks strong but perhaps a little overextended short term.  This is an interesting stock that is the kind of stock that I would be buying, if I had a 'permission slip' to be out purchasing a new position!

Thanks again for visiting!  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave your comments right on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.  If you get a chance, please feel free to visit my Stock Picks Podcast Site, where I discuss many of the same stocks I write about here on the blog.

Bob 

 

 


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 11:37 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink

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