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Saturday, 24 February 2007
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of October 10, 2005

 

 

 

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to always consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

One of the jobs I like to do on weekends is to review past stock picks in as organized a fashion as possible.  This "Weekend Review" started a couple of years ago, when I realized I needed to start examining past stock selections to find out how they all turned out.  These reviews assume a "buy and hold" strategy.  In practice, if you follow this blog on a regular basis, you will know that I employ my own idiosyncratic disciplined portfolio management system in which I sell my losing stocks quickly and completely and sell my gaining stocks slowly and partially at targeted appreciation levels.

But for the sake of this blog and the ease of reviewing past stock picks, I assume a strategy of buying equal $ amounts of each stock 'picked' and I assume I held onto those positions regardless of the price change.  The difference between this strategy and what I actually employ and advocate in my blog would certainly affect actual performance.

During the week of October 10, 2005, I actually only 'picked' one stock for the blog, although I note that I had several discussions with readers about other stocks that week.  Johnson Controls (JCI) is a stock that both my wife and my son have shares in, but I do not own any shares in my own "trading portfolio".  This is one of my 'great Wisconsin firms' that I have written about on the blog.  But of course I am proud of manufacturing companies from my adopted home state. 

On October 12, 2005, I "revisited" Johnson Controls when the stock was trading at $63.60.  I actually first wrote up Johnson Controls (JCI) on July 9, 2004, almost three years ago when the stock was trading at $53.24. Johnson Controls closed at $97.81 on February 23, 2007, for a gain of $34.21 or 53.8% since posting last year.  More recently, I "revisited" Johnson Controls on Stock Picks Bob's Advice on December 20, 2006, when the stock was trading at $86.50.

 


On January 19, 2007, Johnson Controls (JCI) reported 1st quarter 2007 results.  Sales for the quarter ended December 31, 2006, rose 9% to $8.2 billion from $7.5 billion in the prior year.  However, net income dipped to $162 million or $.82/diluted share, down from $165 million or $.85/diluted share in the same period the prior year.  No matter how much I like JCI, and no matter how well this stock has performed on this blog, the earnings report gets a 'thumbs-down' whenever it shows a decrease in either revenue or earnings on this blog.

So how did I do with this single stock pick from that week in October, 2005?  Terrific!  It showed an appreciation of 53.8% since posting in October, 2005.  

Thanks so much for visiting!  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.  If you get a chance, be sure and drop by and visit my Stock Picks Podcast Website where I discuss some of the stocks I write about here on the blog.

Bob 

 

 


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 11:05 AM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Saturday, 24 February 2007 2:21 PM CST

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