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Saturday, 3 March 2007
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of October 17, 2005

 

 

 

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website. 

One of the tasks I assign myself each weekend is to review past stock picks.  I want to find out if these picks would have been successful if I had actually purchased them (I only pick a few of the many stocks discussed on this blog to actually purchase for my own Trading Account.)  This review assumes a "buy and hold" strategy.  In fact, I practice and advocate something quite different--a strategy that involves selling losing stocks quickly and completely and gaining stocks partially and slowly.  This difference in strategies would certainly affect the performance evaluation.  I have been using the 'buy and hold' evaluation assumption simply for the ease in evaluating past stock picks.

On October 18, 2005, I posted Graco (GGG) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $35.89.  Graco closed at $39.60 on March 2, 2007, for a gain of $3.71 or 10.3% since posting.  

On January 29, 2007, Graco reported 4th quarter 2006 results.  For the quarter ended December 29, 2006, net sales increased 10% to $203.4 million.  Net earnings increased to $35.6 million from $32.3 million last year, and diluted earnings per share grew to $.52/share, up from $.46/share last year.

The company met analysts' expectations of $.52/share, but came in a bit light of expectations on revenue of $205.8 million. 

 

On October 18, 2005, I posted Pharmaceutical Product Development on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $62.26 as a "revisit".  The first time  I had written up PPDI, was on October 16, 2003, when the stock was trading at $29.16.  I do not currently hold any shares or options on this stock.  PPDI underwent a 2:1 split on March 1, 2006, making the latest pick price effectively $31.13.  In a strange coincidence (?), PPDI closed at $31.13 on March 2, 2007, unchanged, from the prior post a bit more than a year ago.





On February 5, 2007, PPDI reported 4th quarter 2006 results.  Net revenue came in at $327.0 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2006, a 19.1% increase over net revenue of $274.6 million for the same quarter in 2005.  Net income increased sharply to $41.6 million from $30.5 million in the same period last year.  On a diluted eps basis, this came in at $.35/share, up from $.26/share last year.

The company beat expectations in the latest quarter which according to Thomson Financial, analysts had been expecting profit of $.33/share on revenue of $299.6 million. 

 

On October 19, 2005, I posted The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $34.88.  CAKE closed at $26.68 on March 2, 2007, showing a decrease of $(8.20) or (23.5)% since posting.

 


On February 6, 2007, The Cheesecake Factory reported 4th quarter 2006 results.  For the quarter ended January 2, 2007, revenue came in at $360.7 million, an 18% increase from the fourth quarter of 2005 when revenue was $328.6 million.  Net income, however, dropped to $20.4 million in this year's fourth quarter compared with $22.6 million in last year's 4th quarter.  On a per share diluted basis this worked out to $.26/share this year, down from $.28/share last year.

On October 21, 2005, I posted SanDisk on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $56.45/share.  SanDisk (SNDK) closed at $37.84/share on March 2, 2007, for a decrease of $(18.61) or (33.0)% since posting.

On January 30, 2007, SanDisk (SNDK) reported 4th quarter 2006 results.  For the quarter ended December 31, 2006, revenue climbed 55% to $1.164 billion, compared with $750.6 million in the year-ago same quarter.  Net income however, dropped to a loss of $(35.1) million, compared with an income of $133.9 million last year.  On a diluted per share basis this worked out to a loss of $(.17)/share, compared with an income last year of $.68/share.

So how did I do with these four picks from that week in October, 2005?  Mediocre in a word!  In fact, the overall performance for these stocks, assuming an equal dollar purchase of each and a buy and hold strategy, works out to an average loss of (11.55)% on these stocks.  It was certainly a difficult week for me picking stocks!  Just goes to show that I am quite capable of picking stocks that lose money, and that it is imperative to have a strategy to limit losses to enhance your overall returns.

Thanks so much for stopping by!  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.  If you get a chance, be sure and stop by and visit my Stock Picks Podcast Website where you can get a chance to listen to me discuss many of the same stocks I write about on the blog.

Have a great week trading everyone!

Bob 


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 10:12 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Sunday, 4 March 2007 8:09 PM CST

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