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Sunday, 11 March 2007
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of October 24, 2005

 

 

 

 

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

The weekend is almost over :( and I haven't yet written up my review!  I don't want to get another week behind!  I have had a few questions about 'how come you say looking back ONE year and it is almost like a year-and-a-half?'  Needless to say, the answer is unfortunately self-explanatory.  I get busy.  One thing leads to another and YIKES I don't get to the write-up.  (When I tell you I am an AMATEUR blogger...I am not kidding!)

But seriously, these 'weekend reviews' help me and help you assess the usefulness of what I write on this website.  In addition, hopefully we can learn from which of these picks worked and which didn't.

As I have pointed out elsewhere, these reviews also depend on a 'buy and hold' approach to investing, which assumes that an investor actually bought all of the stocks discussed on the blog that week, investing equal dollar amounts, and let the investment sit.  In practice, I employ and advocate on this blog a disciplined approach to investing that is quite different that this 'buy and hold' system.  I use the 'buy and hold' approach for this review frankly because it is a retrospective look at stocks and it is simpler to assume I bought and held than determining the effect of a portfolio management system on the results.  However, the difference in the investment strategy would certainly affect final results---hopefully, but not necessarily, for the good.

On October 24, 2005, I 'revisited' K-Swiss (KSWS) which was, at that time, trading at $32.71/share.  KSWS closed at $28.20 on March 9, 2007, for a loss of $(4.51) or (13.8)%.

On February 22,  K-Swiss reported 4th quarter 2006 results. Revenues for the quarter ended December 31, 2006, increased 1.7% to $93.8 million, compared with $92.3 million in the same quarter the prior year.  Net earnings, however, decreased to $10.7 million or $.30/diluted share, down from $11.6 million or $.33/diluted share the prior year.

The company also offered what I would view as discouraging guidance for 2007:

"The Company's estimates for the first quarter of 2007 and full-year 2007 reflect a significant decline in domestic revenues; substantial investments in product development and marketing for the K-Swiss brand, including a retail strategy; continued expansion of international operations; and continued investment in the Royal Elastics brand. The estimates are based upon the following assumptions: domestic revenues will decline approximately 30% for the year; gross margins will be approximately 46%; SG&A will not rise above $40 million for the first quarter of 2007 or $152 million for the full-year 2007; our tax rate will approximate 20%; customer order cancellations will be moderate; and the Company's growth initiatives with respect to Royal Elastics will not exceed a net loss of $0.11 per share for the full year."



From this perspective,

K-SWISS IS RATED A SELL

On October 24, 2005, I "revisited" Simpson Manufacturing (SSD) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $38.01.  SSD closed at $31.11 on March 9, 2007, for a loss of $(6.90) or (18.2)%.

On February 1, 2007, Simpson announced 4th quarter 2006 results.  For the quarter ended December 31, 2006, net sales decreased 11.9% to $179.6 million as compared to net sales of $203.9 million for the same quarter in the prior year.  Net income declined 13.4% to $18.7 million in the 2006 final quarter compared to $21.6 million in the same quarter in 2005.  On a diluted per common share basis this worked out to $.38/share in 2006 down from $.44/share in the fourth quarter of 2005. 

The company failed to meet expectations.  Analysts had been expecting earnings of $.40/share on revenue of $189 million.  Simpson missed on both counts.


Due to the poor earnings results, failing to meet expectations on both revenue and earnings, and the poor technical appearance of the chart,

SIMPSON (SSD) IS RATED A SELL.


On October 25, 2005, I posted Rimage (RIMG) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $28.62.  RIMG closed at $26.30 for a loss of $(2.32) or (8.1)% since posting.

On February 26, 2007, Rimage (RIMG) announced 4th quarter 2006 results.  For the quarter ended December 31, 2006, revenue came in at $30.5 million, up 26% from $24.3 million in the same quarter in 2005.  Net income increased 57% to $3.6 million or $.34/diluted share, up from $2.3 million or $.22/diluted share in the same quarter the prior year.  These results exceeded the company's own previous guidance.

With the outstanding earnings report, the great "point & figure chart" from  StockCharts.com, even though I am showing a loss on this stock the RIMAGE IS STILL RATED A BUY.


On October 26, 2005, I "revisited" Digital Insight (DGIN), when the stock was trading at $28.99.  On December 1, 2006, it was announced that Intuit would acquire Digital Insight for $1.35 billion or $39.00/share.  This worked out to a gain of $10.01 or 34.5% since posting. 


On October 27, 2005, I "revisited" ASV (ASVI) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $23.02.  ASVI closed at $15.19 on March 9, 2007, for a loss of $(7.83) or (34)% since posting.

On March 7, 2007, ASVI announced 4th quarter 2006 results.  For the quarter ended December 31, 2006, sales declined to $46.1 million from $66.0 million in the same period a year earlier. Net earnings were down even more sharply at $2.4 million compared with $8.2 million, or $.09/diluted share vs. $.29/diluted share in the 4th quarter 2005.


With the weak earnings report and the weak technical appearance of the "point & figure" chart from StockCharts.com, I would have to say that

ASV INCORPORATED (ASVI) IS RATED A SELL

The last stock I discussed that week was Micros (MCRS) which I posted on Stock Picks Bob's Advice on October 28, 2005, when the stock was trading at  $45.82.  MCRS closed at $54.18 on March 9, 2007, for a gain of $8.36 or 18.2% since posting.

On January 25, 2007, Micros (MCRS) announced 2nd quarter 2007 results.  Revenue increased 15.8% to $189.9 million from $164 million in the same quarter the prior year.  Net earnings were $18 million, up from $14.2 million or $.44/share, up from $.35/share in the same period last year.

The company beat revenue expectations of $188 million, but, if stock-based compensation expenses are included, missed earnings expectations of $.48/share.  However, without these one-time expenses (I am not sure whether analyst expectations included these or not), earnings would have also beaten expectations at $.49/share.


In light of the outstanding earnings report and the nice technical appearance of the "point & figure" chart on MCRS from StockCharts.com,

MICROS IS RATED A BUY.

So how did I do during this week in October, 2005?  Pretty mediocre.  I had an average loss of (3.6)% for the week's picks with four stocks showing declines after I picked them and two showing gains.  

Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog!  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.  If you get a chance, be sure and visit my Stock Picks Podcast Website.

Bob 


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 8:39 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink

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