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Saturday, 17 March 2007
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of October 31, 2005

 

 

 

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

I like to write about stocks!  But in order to find out what works and what doesn't I also find it important to 'look back' and review past stock picks and discussions about stocks.  These reviews assume a "buy and hold" approach to investing.  The performance evaluation assumes an equal $ purchase of each stock discussed that week and a decision to hold the stocks without regard to their performance.  In reality, I advocate and practice a disciplined buying and selling strategy that limits losses and starts realizing profits as they develop.  This difference in strategy would certainly affect the performance of any investment and should be considered when reading these reviews.

However, for the ease of review, I have chosen to assume a buy and hold approach for all stocks discussed.

On October 31, 2005, I posted Hi-Tech Pharmacal (HITK) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice at a price of $37.55.   HITK had a 3:2 stock split on 1/12/06 with a resultant 'pick price' of $25.03.  HITK closed at $11.48 on March 23, 2007, for a resultant loss of $(13.55) or (54.1)%.



On March 8, 2007,  HITK announced 3rd quarter 2007 results.  For the quarter ended January 31, 2007, net sales came in at $18.0 million, down 21% from the $22.9 million reported in the year-earlier same quarter.  Net income declined to $.7 million from $4.9 million in the same quarter last year, and diluted earnings per share also declined sharply to $.06/share, down from $.36/share last year.

HI-TECH PHARMACAL (HITK) IS RATED A SELL

On November 2, 2005, I posted Aspect Medical (ASPM) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $35.40.   ASPM closed at $15.66 on March 23, 2007,  for a loss of $(19.74) or (55.8)% since posting.

On February 7, 2007, Aspect Medical reported 4th quarter 2006 results.  For the quarter ended December 31, 2006, revenue increased to $24.0 million from $21.6 million in the same quarter last year.  Net income before a one-time tax benefit decreased to $2.4 million from $3.1 million the prior year.  With the tax benefit, net income increased to $30.6 million this year vs. $3.1 million in the same quarter last year or $1.32/diluted share vs. $.13/diluted share last year.  Even though I am convinced of the importance of GAAP results, one-time tax reversals, etc., should be understood before believing that earnings really have increased almost ten-fold, when actually they declined.

In addition, the company guided first quarter results to below expectations. They guided to first quarter profit of $.01 to $.03/share while analysts had been expecting first quarter earnings of $.16/share.  Also, the company predicted revenue of $22.6 to $23.6 million in the first quarter of 2007.  Again, analysts had been expecting revenue of $25.5 million in the quarter.

ASPECT MEDICAL (ASPM) IS RATED A SELL

Finally, on November 3, 2005, I posted Fair Isaac (FIC) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $44.50.  FIC closed at $38.49 on March 23, 2007, for a loss on this selection of $(6.01) or (13.5)% since posting.

 


On January 24, 2007, Fair Isaac announced 1st quarter 2007 results.  For the quarter ended December 31, 2006, revenue came in at $208.2 million ahead of the $202.8 million reported in the same quarter in the 2006 fiscal year.  Net income was $31.2 million or $.52/diluted share vs. $28.5 million or $.43/diluted share.  However, $2.3 million of income resulted from a one-time tax benefit.  

The company slightly missed revenue expectations of $210 million. 

FAIR ISAAC (FIC) IS RATED A HOLD.

So how did I do with these three stocks during that week in October/November, 2005?  In a word, well the best word would be AWFUL.  I had three stocks selected and ALL three stocks declined after I picked them.  Is there anything else I need to write to tell you there is nothing guaranteed about what I write?  It is important to keep looking through stocks, letting stocks that don't work out go, and hanging on to the winners!  Anyhow, my average performance for these three was a loss of (41.1)%.  YIKES....now you can see why I waited a week to review these three!

Thanks again for stopping by and visiting!  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.  If you get a chance, be sure and visit my Stock Picks Podcast Website.  Have a great week trading and investing!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 11:16 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Sunday, 25 March 2007 1:38 PM CDT

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