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Sunday, 1 April 2007
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stocks picks from the week of November 7, 2005 and November 14, 2005

 

 

 

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website. 

It is another weekend!  And for me that means, if I don't skip this, doing my proverbial 'housework' around here and looking back at past stock selections on my blog.  As part of my effort at transparency and to help make this website somewhat meaningful, I have found it helpful to review, in a systematic fashion, all of my past stock 'picks' when I am a year or so out.  (I started almost exactly a year out and then, after missing a weekend here, a weekend there....you get the picture---I am now more like a 1 1/3 year out review!)  Since there weren't any stock picks posted for the week of November 7, 205, and since I am already more than a year out, well instead of giving in to my almost joy at realizing there weren't any stocks to review, I decided to jump to the week of November 14, 2005, and take a look at those stock picks.  (A I dedicated or what?...no answers please :))

These "reviews" do not reflect actual holdings of mine, my actual trading strategy, and the effects of taxes and partial sales of stocks, etc.  These are simply a simplified way of looking at past stock selections and seeing simply if they moved higher or lower since being posted!  In other words, the review of performance assumes a 'buy and hold' strategy and equal dollar purchases of each stock from the week involved.  I calculate the average performance of the stocks by getting the mean of the performance of all of the stocks discussed.  

In my own Trading Portfolio, and what I write about here, is a strategy that is very different.  I recommend aggressively selling losing stocks quickly and completely, initially at 8% loss levels, and gaining stocks slowly and partially at targeted appreciation points.  This strategy is key to my own portfolio management philosophy and the difference between 'buying and holding' and actively managing the portfolio would certainly make a difference in the outcomes.  I use the buy and hold evaluation technique simply because I am actually fairly low tech in my approach.  I do not have any software to assess what might have happened and simply put, I think a review like this is adequate to give you, the reader, an idea about these stocks.  

On November 14, 2005, I 'revisited' DJ Orthopedics (DJO) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $31.35.   I use the term "revisit" because my first 'pick' of DJ Orthopedics (DJO) on this blog was on August 22, 2003 when the stock was trading at $10.89.  Unfortunately, I have never owned any shares or options on this stock.  DJO closed at $37.90 on March 30, 2007, for a gain of $6.55 or 20.9% since posting.

Here is a "Point and Figure" Chart on DJO from StockCharts.com


On February 12, 2007, DJO announced 4th quarter 2006 results.  Net revenues for the quarter came in at $110.8 million, up 47.8% from the $75.0 million in the fourth quarter of 2005.  Net income, however, dropped to $1.0 million down from $8.1 million in the prior year same period or $.04/share, down from $.35/share.  Even using "Non-GAAP" numbers, removing impact of stock-based charges, cost of acquisitions, and the company move to a new headquarters, net income still dropped to $.31/share down from $.35/share.  This company has a superb record of revenue growth, however, with the drop in income in the latest quarter, the best I can do is rate

DJ ORTHOPEDICS (DJO) IS RATED A HOLD

 

On November 16, 2005, I posted Gilead Sciences (GILD) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $55.63. GILD closed at $76.65 on March 30, 2007, for a gain of $21.02 or 37.8% since posting.  I do not own any shares nor do I have any options on this stock.

Here is a "Point & Figure" Chart on Gilead from StockCharts.com:


On January 31, 2007, Gilead Sciences announced 4th quarter 2006 results.  Total revenue for the fourth quarter of 2006 came in at $899.2 million, up 48% from prior year sales.  GAAP net income was a net loss of $1.67 billion or $(3.62)/share, compared to a net income of $281.6 million or $.59/diluted share for the same quarter in 2005.  Looking at 'Non-GAAP' net income was $372.8 million or $.78/share compared with last year's Non-GAAP net income for 2005 of $256.5 million or $.54/diluted share, which eliminates one-time tax expenses and expenses related to stock-based compensation and similar items.  I much prefer GAAP results, but the prospects, if I may editorialize, for Gilead are such that I shall place

GILEAD SCIENCES (GILD) IS RATED A BUY

On November 18, 2005 I "revisited" Marvell Technologies (MRVL) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $55.70.  I first looked at Marvell on May 21, 2004, when the stock was trading at $42.99.  Marvell had a 2:1 stock split on June 29, 2004 and another 2:1 stock split on July 25, 2006, making the initial stock pick price $10.75, and the second pick price actually $27.85.  MRVL closed at $16.81 on March 30, 2007, for a loss of $(11.04) or (39.6)% since the latest post.

Here is the "point and figure" chart on Marvell and my stock pick prices:


On Feberuary 26, 2007, Marvell reported preliminary 4th quarter 2006 results showing a 27% revenue growth from $489 million to $622 million in the latest quarter. The company, however, delayed earnings per share results as there is an ongoing review of stock option granting practice.  A month later, the company continues to delay earnings results making assessment of the financial operations from my perspective most difficult.

In light of this,

MARVELL (MRVL) IS RATED A SELL

Finally, on November 18, 2005, I posted Brady Corp (BRC) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $38.90.  BRC closed at $31.20 on March 30, 2007, for a loss of $(7.70) or (19.8)% since posting.

On February 21, 2007, Brady (BRC) announced 2nd quarter 2007 results.  Sales for the quarter were up a strong 39.1% to $321.3 million, compared to $231.0 million in the 2nd quarter of 2006. However, net income for the quarter fell 7.3% to $19.7 million from $21.3 million the prior year.  Earnings per diluted Class A shares came in at $.36/share in the 2007 quarter, down from $.43 in the 2nd quarter 2006.  

With the strong revenue growth and the anemic earnings results, 

BRADY (BRC) IS RATED A HOLD.

The following is a "Point & Figure" chart on Brady (BRC) from StockCharts.com:

So how did I do with these four picks during the week of November 14, 2005?

Of the four stocks, two gained, and two lost money for an average performance of a loss of (.2)% on these four stocks!

Thanks again for visiting!  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.  Have a great week trading and investing everyone!

Bob 


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 11:53 AM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Monday, 2 April 2007 1:22 AM CDT

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