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Sunday, 29 April 2007
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of December 12, 2005

 

 

 

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

It is the weekend...at least for a few more hours!  And one of the tasks that I have assigned myself here is to examine past stock selections.  I am a bit more than a year out even if I say looking back one year :).  In any case, last weekend I reviewed the picks from December 5, 2005.  Let's take a look at the three stocks discussed on this blog during the week of December 12, 2005.  

As I have mentioned before, I personally advocate and employ a very disciplined trading strategy that involves quick sales on losses of entire positions and small partial sales on targeted appreciation points.  For the ease of evaluation, this review assumes a different "buy and hold" strategy.  Employing a portfolio management strategy like I advocate would necessarily affect the outcome or evaluation.  And not necessarily improving the performance!

In any case, let's look at those stocks from the week of December 12, 2005.

On December 14, 2005,  I posted Matrixx Initiatives (MTXX) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $20.63.  MTXX closed at $18.01 on April 27, 2007, for a loss of $(2.62) or (12.7)% since posting.

Looking at a "Point & Figure" chart on MTXX from StockCharts.com:

 


Certainly the chart is not very encouraging with the price trading below the resistance line.

Because of the chart and the earnings report,

MATRIXX INITIATIVES (MTXX) IS RATED A SELL

On February 12, 2007, Matrixx (MTXX) announced 4th quarter 2006 results.  For the quarter ended December 31, 2006, net sales declined to $36.2 million from $44.0 million in the fourth quarter of 2005.  The company reported a net loss of $(463,000) during the quarter, an improvement from the $(3) million in loss in the same quarter the prior year. 

On December 15, 2005, I picked Satyam for Stock Picks at $36.11/share. (Just two weeks ago, on April 14, 2007, I "revisited" Satyam on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $24.60 and actually purchased shares for my own portfolio!)  SAY split its stock 2:1 on October 18, 2006, making my effective stock pick price actually $18.06.  Thus with the close of trading on April 27, 2007, and the stock trading at $25.00, this represents a gain of $6.94 or 38.4% since posting.

On April 20, 2007, Satyam announced 4th quarter results.  During the quarter ended March 31, 2007, the company reported a profit of $86 million, up 38.6% from last year.  Revenue totaled $411 million, up 36.7% from last year's results.  

SATYAM COMPUTER (SAY) IS RATED A BUY  

If we examine the "Point & Figure" chart on Satyam from StockCharts.com, we can see how strongly the stock has been trading as it continuess to stay on the upside of the support line after hitting some short-term weakness from April, 2006, to July, 2006, last year.


On December 16, 2005, I posted Adobe (ADBE) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $38.29.  ADBE closed at $42.89 on April 27, 2007, for a gain of $4.60 or 12.0% since posting.

On March 20, 2007, Adobe Systems (ADBE) announced 1st quarter 2007 results.   Revenue came in at $649.4 million, down slightly from $655.5 million in the same quarter the prior year.  GAAP operating income did increase to $146.3 million in the quarter up from $130.0 million in the same quarter in 2006.  Diluted earnings per share were $.24 vs. $.17/share in the first quarter of 2006.

The company slightly beat estimates on earnings but missed on revenue in this report. 

From my perspective, the failure to achieve revenue growth, while still managing to post improvement in earnings leaves me with this assessment:

ADOBE SYSTEMS (ADBE) IS RATED A HOLD

If we look at the StockCharts.com "Point & Figure" graph on Adobe Systems we can see a very pretty picture suggesting continued strength in this stock.  Technically, from my amateur perspective, the chart looks very strong. 


So how did I do during that week back in December, 2005, picking stocks?  Well really not that bad.  I had two gainers and one decliner.  The average performance was a gain of 12.6% since posting them on the blog.

Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting!  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.  If you get a chance, be sure and visit my Stock Picks Podcast Website.

Bob 


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 2:51 PM CDT | Post Comment | View Comments (2) | Permalink
Updated: Sunday, 29 April 2007 2:54 PM CDT

Monday, 30 April 2007 - 9:19 AM CDT

Name: "Diego"

Hey Bob!

About the forums... off the top of my head, I can think of Google Groups, Yahoo! Groups, MSN Groups, and so on. I don't think Tripod offers you forums to integrate into the blog directly.

Another way would be to get your own hosting and create everything yourself, but even though it would give you much better flexibility, it is considerably more work.

Cheers :) 

Wednesday, 2 May 2007 - 11:18 PM CDT

Name: "Dan"

I really like your clip art added to your stock picks, it helps me get a feel for what your reccomending.

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