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Sunday, 5 August 2007
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the wek of February 13, 2006

 

 

 

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

What a volatile week we had in the market!  The Dow closed out the week Friday with a 281.42 point loss representing a 2.09% pullback in that index.  The NASDAQ composite was even worse closing at 2,511.25 down 64.73 just on Friday alone, a loss of 64.73 points or 2.51% on the index.

Glad to see that week completed!  I do not know how the market will move on Monday, this week, this month, or this year.  I do know that I shall still maintain my investment strategy of monitoring my holdings closely, selling them quickly on losses, and slowly and partially on gains.  

Let's take a look at some stock picks from last year. As is my practice, I reviewed stock picks from the week of February 6, 2006 last wekeend.  Going ahead a week, I want to review the picks from the week of February 13, 2006.  For the sake of this review, this evaluation assumes a buy and hold strategy for all of the stocks selected.  In actual practice, I advocate and employ a disciplined strategy of limiting losses by selling declining positions quickly and completely, and partially selling appreciating stocks at targeted appreciation levels.  This difference in strategy between this review and my actual practice would certainly affect the overall outcome of stocks selected from this blog.  However, for the ease of evaluation, I plan on continuing to use the "buy and hold" analysis for reviews.

On February 14, 2006, I posted Chico's FAS (CHS) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $47.61.  CHS closed at $17.99 on August 3, 2007, for a loss of $(29.62) or (62.2)% since posting.

On May 30, 2007, Chico's FAS announced 1st quarter 2007 results.  Net sales for the quarter increased 16% to $453 million from $391 million in the same 2006 quarter.  During the quarter comparable store sales decreased 1.6%.  Net income for the quarter dropped from $52.5 million in 2006 to $47.2 million in the same quarter this year.  Net income dropped to $.27/diluted share from $.29/diluted share last year.

The bad news does not appear to be over for Chico's.  On July 11, 2007, Chico's reported that June 'same-store sales' declined (7.3)% in June.

With no good news in sight from my perspective, as well as a poor technical chart,

CHICO'S FAS (CHS) IS RATED A SELL

On February 15, 2006, I posted Roper Industries (ROP) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $42.31.  ROP closed at $60.25 on August 3, 2007, for a gain of $17.94 or 42.4% since posting.

On July 26, 2007, Roper Industries reported 2nd quarter 2007 results.  Second quarter sales came in at $531 million, up 25% over last year's $425 million in sales.  Net earnings came in at $61.2 million up from $48.1 million last year.  This worked out to $.66/diluted share, up from $.53/diluted share.

The company beat expectations as analysts had been expecting $.65/share in earnings on revenue of $513 million.  The company also raised guidance on 2007 earnings results with $2.60 to $2.66/share now expected, up from the prior guidance of $2.54 to $2.64/share.

With this solid earnings report and raised guidance as well as a strong chart,

ROPER INDUSTRIES (ROP) IS RATED A BUY

 

 On February 16, 2006, I posted Barnes Group (B) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $39.11.

Barnes had a 2:1 stock split on June 12, 2006, making my effective stock pick price $19.56.  Barnes (B) closed at $27.40 on August 3, 2007, for a gain of $7.84 or 40.1% since posting.

On August 2, 2007, Barnes (B) reported 2nd quarter 2007 results.  Revenue came in at $359.5 million, up 16% from $308.9 million last year.  Earnings came in at $28.4 million or $.49/share, up from $18 million or $.34/share in the same quarter in 2006.  The company beat expectations on earnings which had been expected by analysts to come in at $.47/share.  However, revenue came in a little bit low of expectations which were expected to come in at $362.1 million according to Thomson Financial.

With this strong earnings report, and a strong chart,

BARNES GROUP (B) IS RATED A BUY

On February 17, 2006, I posted Micronetics (NOIZ) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $16.22.  NOIZ closed at $9.67 on August 3, 2007, for a loss of $(6.55) or (40.4)%.

On June 29, 2007, NOIZ reported 4th quarter 2007 results.  Revenue for the quarter fell 27% to $6.3 million from $8.6 million last year.  Net income declined to $340,063 or $.07/share, down from $942,109, or $.19/share last year.

With this poor earnings report and weak chart,

MICRONETICS (NOIZ) IS RATED A SELL

So how did I do with these four stocks picked during the week of February, 13, 2006?  Well it certainly was a 'mixed bag' with two gainers and two losers.  The overall performance was a loss of (5.03)%.

This once again demonstrates how there is nothing magical about what I have been doing here and the necessary sales on small losses!  

Thanks so much for visiting!  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Bob 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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