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Saturday, 18 August 2007
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of February 27, 2006

 

 

Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this weekend.

What a difference a day makes!  The Fed cut rates by 0.5% on Friday to ease the credit crunch and the market soared...giving the S&P its best day in nearly 4 1/2 years!  

There were many moments when I was anxious to throw in the towel and take my cash and put it in my mattress! Instead, I stuck with my investment strategy and sold when selling was indicated and sat on my hands when that was called for!

But it is Saturday and while I have a few moments to catch up on my weekend homework around here, let me get to the 'review'!  In general, I try to keep working at examination of past stock selections each weekend going back a bit more than a year and see how they would have turned out if actually purchased as picked.

This review assumes a buy and hold approach to investments.  In practice, I actually employ a disciplined investment strategy that dictates to me when to be buying and when and how many shares to be selling.  This difference in strategies will certainly affect ultimate performance.  However, for ease of evaluation, I shall stick with these 'buy and hold' reviews.  Perhaps someday I can implement a more accurate computer modeling using my own actual investment strategy!

On February 28, 2006, I posted CAS Medical (CASM) on Stock Picks when the stock was trading at $12.60.  CASM closed at $4.49 on August 17, 2007, for a loss of $(8.11) or (64.4)%.

On August 9, 2007, CASM announced 2nd quarter 2007 results.  Revenue for the quarter came in at $7.96 million, down $67,000 from $8.03 million reported in the same quarter in 2006.  Earnings came in at a loss of $(.03)/diluted share, down from a profit of $.03/diluted share the prior year.

Reviewing the 'point and figure' chart on CASM from StockCharts.com, we can see the unfortunate timing of my pick with the stock hitting resistance in February, 2006 and then trading consistently under the resistance level.  This is a very weak chart at this point from my perspective. 

With the weak earnings report and weak chart,

CAS MEDICAL SYSTEMS (CASM) IS RATED A SELL

On March 1, 2006, I posted Autodesk (ADSK) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $41.68.   ADSK closed at $44.90 on August 17, 2007, for a gain of $3.22 or 7.7% since posting.

On August 16, 2007, Autodesk reported 2nd quarter 2007 results.  Revenues came in at $526 million, up 17% over the 2nd quart of 2006.  Net income was $92 million or $.38/share on a GAAP basis.  (Or $.44/diluted share or $108 million on a non-GAAP basis).  Prior year results worked out to $87 million or $.36/share on a GAAP basis (Or $96 million or $.39/diluted share the prior year).  Whether you choose to go with GAAP results (my preference), or non-GAAP, either way this was an improvement year-over-year.

Looking at a 'point and figure' chart on Autodesk from StockCharts.com, we can see that while the stock has recently been under some short-term pressure, it has not broken down and appears to be trending higher above the 'support line'.


With the solid earnings report and the continued strength in the chart,

AUTODESK (ADSK) IS RATED A BUY

So how did I do that week back in February/March of 2006?  Well actually pretty mediocre.  With one stock down big, and the other stock moderately higher, the two stocks showed an average of a loss of (28.4)% since posting. 

Once again, this demonstrates the importance of limiting losses and harvesting gains! If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.  If you get a chance be sure and visit my Stock Picks Podcast Website, where you can hear me discuss a few of the many stocks I write about on the blog, or my Covestor Website where my actual trading portfolio is monitored and evaluated, as well as my SocialPicks website where all of my stock picks have been reviewed this year!

Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting!  I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great week trading next week!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 9:49 AM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink

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