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Saturday, 1 September 2007
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of March 13, 2006

 

 

 

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

I hope you all are having a good Labor Day Holiday (for those of you outside the United States, I also wish you a wonderful weekend!).

Always thinking about informing my readers nd learning more myself, I would like to share this commentary about the history of 'Labor Day' in the United States from a PBS NewsHour Production:

"In September 1892, union workers in New York City took an unpaid day off and marched around Union Square in support of the holiday. But now, protests against President Cleveland's harsh methods made the appeasement of the nation's workers a top political priority. In the immediate wake of the strike, legislation was rushed unanimously through both houses of Congress, and the bill arrived on President Cleveland's desk just six days after his troops had broken the Pullman strike.

1894 was an election year. President Cleveland seized the chance at conciliation, and Labor Day was born. He was not reelected.

In 1898, Samuel Gompers, head of the American Federation of Labor, called it "the day for which the toilers in past centuries looked forward, when their rights and their wrongs would be discussed...that the workers of our day may not only lay down their tools of labor for a holiday, but upon which they may touch shoulders in marching phalanx and feel the stronger for it."

For me, and I am sure most of the American readers, Labor Day is now just an excuse for a three day weekend, a picnic trip, or fishing expedition, or perhaps a county fair or parade.  It is important to understand the historic origins of the days we celebrate!

Well, one of my 'labors' this weekend (excuse any semblance to a pun), is to examine past stock picks from this blog and find out how they would have worked out if indeed purchased, and how the companies themselves are doing and whether they still deserve a spot on the blog, as I refer to my large 'vocabulary' of stock names.

These reviews assume a 'buy and hold' approach to investing.  In fact, I recommend and practice an extremely disciplined approach to ownership of equities that demands that I sell stocks at small losses quickly and also sell portions of appreciating stocks in a slow and deliberate fashion.  This difference in strategies would certainly affect performance; however, for the ease of analysis, this 'buy and hold' assumption is retained for this review.

On March 13, 2006, I posted Stryker (SYK) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $48.07.  SYK closed on August 31, 2007, at $66.80, for a gain of $18.73 or 39.0%. 


On July 19, 2007, Stryker (SYK) reported 2nd quarter 2007 results.  For the quarter ended June 30, 2007, net sales grew 16.0%  $1.46 billion.  Diluted net earnings per share increased 25.0% to $.65/share.  The company beat average expectations of $.61/share on revenue of $1.44 billion.  The Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated" financials are intact.

For all of the above reasons,

STRYKER (SYK) IS RATED A BUY

On March 15, 2006, I posted LMI Aerospace (LMIA) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $18.01.   LMIA closed at $22.86 on August 31, 2007, for a gain of $4.85 or 26.9% since posting.

Here is the "point and figure" chart on LMIA from StockCharts.com

 

On August 7, 2007, LMI Aerospace (LMIA) announced 2nd quarter 2007 results.  Net sales increased to $33.9 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2007, up 3.6% from $32.8 million the prior year.  Net income, however, dropped to $2.9 million from $3.0 million or $.26/diluted share, unchanged from $.26/diluted share the prior year.

The company failed to meet expectations of analysts who had been looking for a profit of $.30/share.   More recently, the company lowered estimates on revenue growth for 2007 to a range of 15-19% from the previous estimate of a minimum 18% growth.  

Furthermore, examining the Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated financials on LMI Aerospace we find that besides the dip in earnings, the company turned cash flow negative in 2006 at $(1) million and this dropped further to $(5) million in the trailing twelve months (TTM).

With this relatively weak earnings report that missed expectations, the lowered guidance, and the fundamentals that are less than stellar, I shall be reducing the rating on LMIA and even though the pick was 'profitable',

LMI AEROSPACE (LMIA) IS RATED A SELL

Finally, on March 17, 2006, I posted Clarcor (CLC) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $35.62.   CLC closed at $38.72 on August 31, 2007, for a gain of $3.10 or 8.7% since posting.

Here is the "point & figure" chart on CLC from StockCharts.com:

On June 19, 2007, Clarcor (CLC) announced 2nd quarter 2007 results.  Net sales increased 3.5% for the quarter ended 6/2/07, to $235.1 million from $227.1 million in the same quarter last year.  Earnings grew 28.1% to $.41/diluted share, up from $.32/diluted share last year.

The company slightly missed estimates on revenue, with $235.9 million expected but beat expectations on earnings with analysts looking for $.37/share.  The company also raised 2007 guidance to $1.72 to $1.80/share.  Analysts had been expecting net income of $1.70/share.

The Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated" financials page is intact. 

With the solid earnings report and the company beating expectations on earnings (although coming in slightly light on revenue), raising guidance, and with an intact Morningstar.com report,

CLARCOR (CLC) IS RATED A BUY

So how did I do picking these three stocks back during the week of March 13, 2006?  In a word, great!  All three stocks showed gains with the average appreciation being a gain of 24.9% since posting.

Please remember that past performance is no guarantee for future performance and that of course I am an amateur so please consult with your advisers!  

In the meantime, please feel free to drop me a line at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com if you have any comments or questions or simply post on the blog itself.  Also, be sure and visit my Stock Picks Podcast website, my Covestor page where my trading portfolio is monitored, and my SocialPicks page where all of my stock picks since January, 2007, are being followed.

Have a great Labor Day everyone!  And a great week trading and investing next week.

Bob 


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 10:18 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Saturday, 1 September 2007 10:20 PM CDT

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