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Sunday, 23 September 2007
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of April 3, 2006

 

 

 

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

It is the weekend, and that means that it is time to write up a review of my past stock picks.  Last weekend I reviewed the stocks from the week of March 27, 2006.  Moving one week ahead, let's take a look at all of the stock picks from the week of April 3, 2006.  These reviews assume a buy and hold strategy.  In reality, I advocate a disciplined portfolio management strategy that directs me to sell losing stocks quickly and completely and sell gaining stocks slowly and partially at targeted appreciation levels.  I have discussed and shall continue to discuss these techniques throughout my blog.

But for the ease of measurement, let's find out what would have happened if we had indeed purchased equal dollar amount of each stock discussed that week about a year-and-a-half ago.

On April 4, 2006, I posted CheckFree (CKFR) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $54.14.  CKFR closed at $46.82 on September 21, 2007, for a loss of $(7.32) or (13.5)% since posting.

Since CheckFree is to be acquired at $48 in cash on December 31, 2007, subject to regulatory approval,

CHECKFREE (CKFR) IS RATED A HOLD

Looking at the 'point and figure' chart on CheckFree (CKFR) from StockCharts.com, we can see the relatively weak performance of the stock prior to the announcement of the acquisition.

On April 5, 2006, I posted Apple Computer (AAPL) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $67.21.  AAPL closed at $144.15 on September 21, 2007, for a gain of $76.94 or 114.5% since posting.

On July 25, 2007, Apple announced 3rd quarter 2007 results.  Revenue came in at $5.41 billion up from $4.37 billion the prior year same period.  Quarterly profit was $818 million, up sharply from last year's $472 million profit.  On a per share basis this came in at $.92/diluted share up from $.54/share last year.

The company beat expectations of analysts who were expecting earnings of $.72/share on revenue of $5.29 billion.

The "5-Yr Restated" financials on AAPL from Morningstar.com are intact. 

APPLE COMPUTER (AAPL) IS RATED A BUY

Looking at the "point & figure" chart on AAPL from StockCharts.com, we can see a chart that appears phenomenally strong!  

On April 6, 2006, I posted Immucor (BLUD) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $30.76.  BLUD split 3:2 on May 16, 2006, making my effective stock pick price actually $20.51.  BLUD closed at $36.69 on September 21, 2007, giving this stock pick a gain of $16.10 or 78.5% since posting.

On July 25, 2007, Immucor announced 4th quarter 2007 results.  Revenue for the quarter ending May 31, 2007, came in at $61.1 million, up 22% from $50.0 million.  Net income for the quarter was $18.2 million, up 51% from $12.1 million last year.  Diluted earnings came in at $.26/share, up 53% from the $.17/share the prior year.

The Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated" financials on BLUD are intact.

IMMUCOR (BLUD) IS RATED A BUY

Looking at the "point & figure" chart on BLUD from StockCharts.com, we can see the very strong price movement from as far back as March, 2002.  The stock exhibited some weakness in late 2005, but never 'broke down' below the support lines.

Finally, on April 7, 2006, I posted Aladdin Knowledge Systems (ALDN) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $22.96.  ALDN closed at $20.99 on September 21, 2007, for a loss of $(1.97) or (8.6)% since posting.

On July 19, 2007, Aladdin reported 2nd quarter 2007 results.  For the quarter ended June 30, 2007, revenue came in at $25.5 million, up 22% from $20.9 million the prior year.  Net income came in at $3.9 million or $.26/diluted share, up from $3.3 million or $.22/diluted share the prior year. 

The company beat expectations of revenue of $24.1 million and profit of $24.1 million according to analysts polled by Thomson Financial.  In addition, the company raised guidance for 2007 full year results for a profit of $1.00 to $1.12/share, up from prior guidance of $.90 to $1.09/share.  In addition, they raised expectations on revenue to between $100 million and $106 million, from the prior guidance of $95 million to $102 million.

The Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated" financials on ALDN are intact.

ALADDIN KNOWLEDGE SYSTEMS (ALDN) IS RATED A BUY

Reviewing the "point & figure" chart on Aladdin from StockCharts.com, we can see that this is a very unimpressive price chart.  The stock has been volatile since June, 2004, when the stock peaked at $27.  The stock dipped as low as $13 in July, 2004, only to see the stock price climb right back to a peak at $32 in November, 2004.  The stock then dipped back to a low of $14 in July, 2006.  The stock appears to be moving higher once again.  This stock chart is certainly not over-extended, however, the volatility is of concern and is the big negative factor for this stock.

 


So how did we do with these stock picks?  In a word phenomenal!  Two stocks showed small losses and two stocks had large gains.  The average performance for these four stocks was a gain of 42.7%!  Certainly past performance is not a reliable indicator for future performance but wasn't that a great week for picking stocks?

Thanks again for stopping by and visiting!  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.  If you get a chance, drop by and visit my Stock Picks Podcast Website, or my Covestor Page where my trading portfolio is continually being monitored, or my SocialPicks Page where my blog is reviewed by the people over at SocialPicks!

Regards and wishing you a great week trading!

Bob 


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 3:20 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Sunday, 23 September 2007 4:21 PM CDT

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