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Saturday, 6 October 2007
Systemax (SYX)

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website!

I have had a busy week and every time I meant to get around to writing up a stock, I had something else I needed to do or it was simply so late in the evening that I needed to get some shut-eye.  I did manage to make some changes in my portfolio and shall expand on those ideas at a future date.  In any case, excuses aside, I really wanted to take a look at the list of top % gainers from yesterday and see if there was a stock that fit my criteria for the blog. 

A few days ago, I started to write up Systemax (SYX) but didn't finish the entry.  Now with Systemax making the top % gainers list from the NYSE again yesterday, I thought I would expand on this investment idea.  I do not own any shares nor do I have any options in this stock.

SYSTEMAX (SYX) IS RATED A BUY

Systemax closed at $23.25 on October 5, 2007, for a gain of $1.81 or 8.44% on the day.   Let's take a closer look at this stock and I will explain why I believe it fits what I am looking for in a stock and why it deserves a spot in my 'vocabulary' of investing!

What exactly does this company do?

According to the Yahoo "Profile" on Systemax, the company

"...and its subsidiaries operate as a direct marketer of brand name and private label products. It operates in three segments: Technology Products, Industrial Products, and Hosted Software. The Technology Products segment sells computers, computer supplies, and consumer electronics in North America and Europe....The Industrial Products segment sells various material handling equipment, storage equipment, and consumable industrial items in North America....The Hosted Software segment markets PCS ProfitCenter Software, a Web-based application, which delivers on-demand service over the Internet. Its product helps companies automate and manage the customer life-cycle across multiple sales channels."

How did they do in the latest quarter?

On August 8, 2007, Systemax (SYX) announced 2nd quarter 2007 results.  For the quarter ended June 30, 2007, sales increased 18% to $647 million from $547 million in the same quarter in 2006.  Net income came in at $18.3 million, up 94% from $7.1 million or $.37/diluted share, up from $.19/diluted share last year.

How about longer-term results?

Reviewing the Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated" financials on Systemax, we can see a steady picture of revenue growth with sales increasing from $1.55 billion in 2002 to $2.35 billion in 2006 and $2.55 billion in the trailing twelve months (TTM).  Earnings have improved from a loss of $(1.70) in 2002 to $.10/share in 2003.  These were flat between 2004 and 2005 at $.30/share, but improved to $1.20/share in 2006 and $1.30/share in the TTM.   Outstanding shares have been very stable with 34 million in 2003 increasing only to 35 million in the TTM.

Free cash flow has been positive and growing nicely recently with $4 million in 2004 increasing to $28 million in 2006 and $94 million in the TTM.  The balance sheet on Morningstar.com also appears quite strong to me with $82 million in cash and $456.0 million in other current assets.  This total of $538 million, when compared to the current liabilities of $307.2 million yields a current ratio of 1.75.  The company has a relatively insignificant level of long-term liabilities reported at $6.4 million.

What about some valuation numbers?

Examining the Yahoo "Key Statistics" on Systemax (SYX), we can see that this company is a small cap stock with a market capitalization of $838.2 million.  The trailing p/e is a reasonable (imho) 18.08.  Apparently there aren't any analysts following this stock as we don't have a forward p/e, or a PEG ratio.  I would expect this company to be picked up by some analysts and reported by Yahoo in the future if it continues to perform as strongly as it is currently.

Using the Fidelity.com eresearch website, we can see that valuation-wise the company is also pretty reasonably priced with a Price/Sales (TTM) ratio of 0.33, compared to the industry average of 2.85. The company does not do quite as well in terms of profitability, at least as measured by the Return on Equity (TTM) with the company coming in at 17.09%, compared to the industry average of 38.08%.

Returning to the Yahoo evaluation, we see that there are 36.05 million shares outstanding with 19.46 million that float. There are 4.26 million shares out short as of 9/11/07, yielding a short ratio of 11.9 days.  I use my own idiosyncratic '3-day rule' for significance, and this represents quite a few shares out short, setting up for a possible short squeeze.  No dividend is paid and no stock splits are reported on Yahoo.

What does the chart look like?

Examining the "point & figure" chart on Systemax (SYX) from StockCharts.com, we can see a sharp rise in stock price between June, 2006 and February, 2007, when the stock rose from $6.50 to $29.  The stock has been consolidating since and appears to be forming a sort of "flag formation", which might suggest an upside potential as the stock consolidates at this higher level.  I am not a technician and generally 'flag formations' are not associated with point and figure charting, but the stock chart looks reasonably positive to me with little evidence of the stock getting overpriced imho. 


Summary: What do I think?

Well, needless to say I like this stock!  Let's review a few of the things that make the stock attractive for inclusion in this blog.  First of all, the stock made a strong move higher in an otherwise strong market.  The latest quarterly report was superb with strong revenue growth and even stronger earnings report.  Longer-term, this company has moved from losses to profits with generally steadily increasing earnings and stable outstanding shares.  Free cash flow has been positive and growing very strongly.  The balance sheet is solid with almost not long-term debt.

Valuation-wise, the p/e is in the teens.  Unfortunately (or fortunately) there are no analysts that I can easily find making estimates for the stock.  As analysts discover this company (?) if the company continues to do well, this would only bode well for investors at this time.  (my guess?) To top it off there appears to be a significant number of short sellers who are betting against this company.  Finally the chart doesn't look bad.  Valuation-wise, the price/sales is solid but the return on equity is a tad anemic.  On balance, things look bright for this company and if the company can indeed come in with another strong quarterly report, well....let's just see what happens.  

I don't own any shares, but if I were buying shares....well this is the kind of company I would be purchasing!  Meanwhile, I shall throw it in the "hopper" of my stocks, my so-called vocabulary of investing :).

Thanks again for dropping by!  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.  If you get a chance, be sure and drop by my Stock Picks Podcast Page, where you can hear me discuss some of the many stocks written up on the blog.  Also, be sure and visit my Covestor Page where my actual trading portfolio is evaluated, reviewed, and compared to other investors who have registered on this website.  Also, don't forget visiting my SocialPicks Page where ALL of my stock picks are reviewed, whether or not I own them (!), at least since about January of this year.  (the blog goes all the way back to 2003!).  

Finally, you really ought to check out Prosper.com, where I currently am trying out the person-to-person lending program.  Full disclosure, when you sign up I earn $25 if you make a loan and YOU get $25 as well when you open an account to lend money.  Be sure you are aware of the extensive risks with this venture.  So do this in small amounts and be careful as you can lose money on these loans!  But Prosper is a fascinating program and represents what is new on the Web! 

Have a great weekend everyone!

Bob 


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 11:58 AM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink

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