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Saturday, 6 October 2007
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of April 10, 2006

 

 

 

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website. 

I really should apologize to all of my regular readers!  Last weekend I played 'hooky' and was unable to get it together and get a review of past stock selections up on the blog.  This 'looking back one year' is starting to look like looking back 1 1/2 years...and pushing two! In any case, I shall try to get this post up today (or tomorrow :)).

My reviews of past stock picks assume a buy and hold approach.  It is simply easier for me to calculate past performance assuming an equal dollar amount of each stock 'picked' during a particular week was held indefinitely.  As you may know, especially if you are a regular reader of the blog, I have a very disciplined trading strategy that involves selling losing stocks quickly and completely and selling gaining stocks slowly and partially at targeted appreciation levels.  This difference in strategies would certainly affect the measured performance of these stocks in practice.

During the week of April 10, 2006, although I had questions about other stocks like GameStop (GME), I only wrote up one stock, SanDisk (SNDK) which I "picked" on April 13, 2006, when the stock was trading at $61.95.  SanDisk closed at $52.10 on October 5, 2007, for a loss of $(9.85) or (15.9)% since posting.

On July 19, 2007, SanDisk reported 2nd quarter 2007 results.  Revenue came in at $720 million, up 13% over the prior year.  Net income was reported at $28 million or $.12/diluted share, sharply below the $96 million or $.47/diluted share in the same quarter in 2006. 


Since the revenue picture is intact, the company still is generating solid free cash flow, and the balance sheet is intact, in light of the decrease in the earnings in the latest quarter,

SANDISK (SNDK) IS RATED A HOLD

So how did I do during that week in April 10, 2006.  Well, my performance is based on the only stock 'picked' that week--SanDisk which declined (15.9)% since posting!  I have certainly had better weeks.  Ironically GameStop which was discussed in response to a question from a reader that weak far outperformed my own 'pick'.  I have learned to listen and consider everything my readers write :).

Thanks again for visiting my blog!  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.  If you get a chance, be sure and visit my Stock Picks Podcast website, my Covestor page and my SocialPicks page!

Bob 


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