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Sunday, 14 October 2007
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of April 17, 2006

 

 

 

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website. 

It is still the weekend for a few more hours and there is time for me to review picks from about a year ago.  Last week I reviewed the stock picks from the week of April 10, 2006.  Moving ahead a week, let's look at stock picks from the week of April 17, 2006. 

As I have pointed out mutilple times previously, this review assumes a 'buy and hold' approach to investing, assuming an equal $ amount was invested in each of the 'picks' and performance is based on that assumption.  In reality I practice and advocate a very disciplined portfolio management system that requires me to sell losing stocks quickly and completely and appreciating stocks slowly and partially.  This difference in strategies would certainly affect performance and should be taken into consideration.

On April 17, 2006, I posted Infosys (INFY) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $84.78.   INFY had a 2:1 stock split on July 18, 2006, making my effective 'pick price' actually $42.39.  Infosys closed at $51.69 on October 12, 2007, giving my pick an effective gain of $9.30 or 21.9% since posting.

On October 11, 2007, Infosys (INFY) reported 2nd quarter 2008 earnings results.  Revenues came in at $1.02 billion, up 37% from the prior quarter last year.  Earnings per American Depositary Share (ADS) climbed 33% to $.48/share from $.36/share.  Due to the strength in the rupee and the weakness in the dollar, management forecast margins being hit by 50 to 100 basis points.  The company beat its own guidance, but the stock dipped on the reduced guidance going forward.

With the solid quarterly report, the strong price chart, and an intact Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated" financials page,

INFOSYS (INFY) IS RATED A BUY

On April 18, 2006, I posted Franklin Electric (FELE) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $60.77.  Franklin closed at $42.77 on October 12, 2007 for a loss of $(18) or (29.6)% since posting.


On July 30, 2007, Franklin Electric (FELE) reported 2nd quarter 2007 results.  Sales for the quarter ended June 30, 2007, came in at $152.5 million, up slightly from the same quarter last year when sales came in at $152.2 million.  Net income, however, came in sharply lower at $6.6 million down sharply from $16.4 million last year.  Diluted earnings per share dropped (60)% to $.28/share, from last year's $.70/share in the same period.

The company missed expectations by a wide margin, as analysts polled by Thomson Financial were expecting earnings of $.51/share on revenue of $162.5 million. 

Checking the Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated" financials, we can see that not only have earnings dipped on flat revenue but that free cash flow which was positive came in at a negative $(13) million in the TTM.  The rest of the morningstar.com page looks solid. 

With the weak price chart, the mediocre earnings report, and the inadequate Morningstar.com page results,

FRANKLIN ELECTRIC (FELE) IS RATED A SELL

Finally, on April 19, 2006, I posted Wolverine World Wide (WWW) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $23.91.  WWW closed at $26.80 on October 12, 2007, for a gain of $2.89 or 12.1% since being posted.


On October 3, 2007, Wolverine World Wide (WWW) announced 3rd quarter 2007 results.  Revenue for the quarter ended September 8, 2007, came in at $310.2 million, up 3.8% over 3rd quarter 2006 results. Earnings for the quarter came in at $.54/share, up 17.4% from the $.46/share reported last year.

The company beat expectations on earnings expected by analysts according to Thomson Financial to come in at $.53/share.  However, the revenue figure underwhelmed the street at $310.2 million while analysts were expecting an average of $316.9 million.  The company also raised guidance from $1.60 to $1.64/share for 2007 to new estimates of $1.63 to $1.65/share.

With the solid earnings report, the still-strong price chart, and a good Morningstar.com page,

WOLVERINE WORLD WIDE (WWW) IS RATED A BUY

So how did I do with these three stock picks?  Well one had a loss, and the other two gains, the average performance coming in at a gain of a meager 1.47% since posting!

Thanks so much for dropping by!  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.  If you get a chance, drop by and visit my Stock Picks Podcast Website, my Covestor Page where my trading portfolio is actively tracked, and my SocialPicks page which has been following my picks since the first of the year!

Have a great week trading everyone!

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 5:37 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink
Updated: Sunday, 14 October 2007 5:39 PM CDT

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