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Sunday, 23 December 2007
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of June 19, 2006

 

 

 

 

Hello Friends! Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

It is the weekend.  And almost Christmas.  We have lots of snow outside and I am sure some travelers are having a bit of trouble getting where they need to get.  As for me, I am staying put for the duration.  But I do have a bit of time to take a look at the week of June 16, 2006, when actually I only picked a single stock for this blog.

These weekend reviews assume a buy and hold approach to investing.  That means it assumes that an investor purchases the stock and holds it for the long-term regardless of the price changes.  In reality, I advocate and practice a much more disciplined approach (except when I buy a stock for what I call a 'trade').  That means buying stocks based on investment signals and selling them either on declines or appreciation when they reach their appropriate targeted prices.   But for the ease of analysis, I utilize this buy and hold approach each weekend to evaluate stock picks.  The difference in these strategies would certainly affect stock portfolio performance.

On July 20, 2006, I posted Gildan (GIL) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $41.65.  Adjusted for a 2:1 stock split May 29, 2007, this works out to a price of $20.83.

My 2006 post was actually the second time I have looked at Gilda--I first 'picked' Gildan for the blog on December 2, 2004, when the stock was trading at $32.65, adjusted for a 2:1 stock split June 1, 2005, and the 2:1 stock split on May 29, 2007, this works out to an effective 'pick price' of $32.65 x 1/2 x 1/2 = $8.16.

Gildan (GIL) closed at $40.78 on December 21, 2007, for an appreciation of $19.95 or 95.8% since posting last year.  Looking at that 2004 pick, the appreciation to date is $32.62 or 399.8% since posting.  I do not currently own any shares or options on this stock. 

Let's take a closer look at this stock and see if it still deserves a spot on this blog!

What exactly does this company do?

According to the Yahoo "Profile" on Gildan (GIL), the company

"...engages in the manufacture and sale of activewear for the wholesale imprinted sportswear markets in the United States, Canada, and Europe. The company also sells socks, and men's and boys' underwear, as well as frequently replenished and non-fashion apparel. It primarily offers activewear, including t-shirts, fleece, and sport shirts under the Gildan brand name to wholesale distributors as undecorated, which are subsequently decorated by screen printers with designs and logos."

 

How did they do in the latest quarter?

On December 6, 2007, Gildan (GIL) announced 4th quarter 2007 results.  For the quarter ended December 30, 2007, sales came in at $254.9 million (U.S.), up 8.4% from $235.2 million in the same quarter last year. Adjusted net earnings came in at $45.8 million up 24.5% from $36.8 million or $.38/diluted share, up 26.7% from $.30/diluted share last year.

The company matched estimates of analysts. The company announced guidance below current estimates for the 1st quarter and year 2008.  They predicted earnings of $.21/share in the first year (analysts were looking for $.24/share) and full 2008 fiscal year results of $1.85/share (analysts predict profits of $1.93 for the year).  Thus, even with the strong quarterly report, the announcement lowered expectations for 2008.  As you know, I prefer to see a company announce strong earnings that beat expectations and then raise guidance.  

What about longer-term results?

Reviewing the Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated" financials page on GIL, we can see that the company continues to report steady revenue growth, steady earnings growth, no dividend, stable outstanding shares, positive and growing free cash flow, and a solid balance sheet. 

What about some valuation numbers?

Checking the Yahoo "Key Statistics" on GIL, we see that the company is a mid cap stock with a market capitalization of $4.91 billion.  The trailing p/e is moderately high at 38.11, but the forward p/e (fye 30-Sep-09) is 17.28, and estimates for growth continue strong enough for a PEG (5 yr expected) to be calculated at 0.65. 

According to the Fidelity.com eresearch website, valuation is a bit rich as measure by the Price/Sales ratio (TTM) which for GIL comes in at 5.09, with an industry average of 3.25.  Also, measuring profitability by the Return on Equity (TTM), according to Fidelity, the company comes in a tad shy of the average at 21.66%, with an industry average reported to be 22.15%.

Finishing up with Yahoo, there are 120.43 million shares outstanding with 109.21 million that float.  As of 11/9/07, there were 2.61 million shares out short, representing 4.7 trading days of volume (the short ratio).  This is a bit heavy of a short interest (at least according to my own '3 day rule').  If he company should repor posiive results this may result in a bit of a squeeze on the shorts.

No dividends are paid and as already noted the last stock split was a 2:1 stock split May 29, 2007.

What does the chart look like?

Looking at the "Point & Figure" chart on Gildan from StockCharts.com, we can see a phenomenally strong chart, which after a slight dip to $2.75/share in September, 2001, the stock has been 'on a tear' moving sharply higher well above support levels without any recent correction.


Summary: What do I think?

First of all this has been an absolutely terrific stock pick for this blog.  And unfortunately you will not find it in my trading portfolio today.  This only stock pick for the week showed a 95.8% appreciation.  Not too shabby at all.  

Let's review some of the findings on this blog.  First of all, the company reported a terrific quarter.  However, they cut guidance slightly on the quarter and the year upcoming.  The Morningstar.com report is solid.  Valuation-wise, the p/e is a bit rich but the PEG is reported under 1.0.  The price/sales is also a bit rich and profitability is just under average for its industry.  Finally, the chart is solid with a very strong upward pattern going all the way back to late 2001.  However, the stock price does appear to be a tad overextended.

I really like this company.  It deserves a spot in the blog.  But with the above cautions noted,

GILDAN (GIL) IS RATED A HOLD

Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting!  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Feel free to visit my related websites, including my Covestor Page where my actual trading portfolio is tracked independently of my reporting, my SocialPicks page where my stock picks are reviewed and monitored, my Podcast Website, where I have been recording a few 'radio shows' (in a very amateur fashion) and discussing some of the various stock picks from my blog.

If you are interested in a possibly higher risk venture, I have been investing some funds over at Prosper.com where person-to-person lending in a sort of Dutch Auction, eBay style consortium fashion occurs.  That is, you can invest money, usually small amounts, and become part of a larger group of lenders who lend 36 month unsecured loans to individuals with Prosper.com serving as a intermediary.  Please be very careful if you participate, do your homework, be aware of the risks, consider sticking with conservative, higher-rated individuals, and good-luck.  But it is a fascinating venture and I am intrigued. (Full Disclosure: if you sign up with Prosper.com through these links, we will both earn $25 if you place a loan).

Have a wonderful Christmas and a very happy and healthy New Year!  Let's hope 2008 brings us peace, good health, and profits :).

Bob


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