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Sunday, 27 April 2008
"Looking Back One Year" A review of stock picks from the week of October 9, 2006

 

 

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

It is Sunday, and although I do have about a million other things to be doing around the house, I wanted to try to get this review up so that I don't get another week behind! 

As I have explained many times before, these reviews assume a buy and hold approach to investing. This means that my performance analysis assumes an investment of equal $'s into each of the stock picked that particular week and continued holding of that stock regardless of its price performance.

In practice, I advocate a disciplined investment strategy that requires me to sell stocks completely after targeted declines and sell portions of appreciating stocks at pre-determined appreciation targets.  O.K. if that sounds too complicated you can listen to my podcast on this topic.

Last weekend I reviewed the picks from the week of October 2, 2006 from this blog.  Going a week ahead, let's take a look at the three stocks picked during the week of October 9, 2006! Too keep these reviews as concise as possible, I shall try to examine 1) the price performance since selected, 2) the latest quarter result, 3) the Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated" financials, and 4) the chart.  I choose my "buy" and "hold" and "sell" ratings, based on these screens.  I am also lately reluctant to rate anything a "sell" if the chart suggests that most of the damage has already done.

On October 10, 2006, I posted Johnson Controls (JCI) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $81.00. JCI had a 3:1 stock split on October 3, 2007, making my effective 'pick price' actually $27.   Johnson Controls closed April 25, 2008, at $33.95, giving this pick a gain of $6.95 or 25.7% since posting. I do not own any shares or options of JCI, but my wife has some shares in her IRA and my stock club own shares currently

On April 16, 2008, Johnson Controls reported 2nd quarter 2008 results.  For the quarter ended March 31, 2008, sales increased 11% to $9.4 billion from $8.5 billion last year.  Net income came in at $289 million, up from $228 million last year.  Diluted earnings per share grew to $.48/share from $.38/share.  (Continuing operations earnings were $.48 vs. $.44/share last year).

This was a solid report that beat expectations.  Analysts had expected $.47/share on revenue of $9.37 billion. 

Review of the Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated" financials on JCI shows continued steady revenue growth, earnings growth, dividend growth, stable shares outstanding increases, increasing free cash flow, and a satisfactory balance sheet. 

Reviewing the 'point & figure' chart on JCI from StockCharts.com, we can see that while there has been some consolidation in the stock price from its recent high of $44/share, the stock appears quite strong and is trading well above the support line with recently demonstrating a series of higher lows.

 

JOHNSON CONTROLS (JCI) IS RATED A BUY

 

On October 11, 2006, I posted CVS Corp (CVS) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when the stock was trading at $31.16/share.   The following month, on November 2, 2006, CVS announced the pending acquisition of Caremark Rx Inc. in a $22.5 billion deal with the resulting company named CVS/Caremark (CVS).  This acquisition was completed by March 23, 2007.

CVS Caremark (CVS) closed at $40.93 on April 25, 2008, giving this stock pick a gain of $9.77 or 31.4% since posting.  I do not own any shares or options of this stock.

On January 31, 2008, CVS Caremark reported 4th quarter 2007 results.  Revenue for the quarter increased 81% to $21.9 billion for the quarter ended December 29, 2007.  This large increase was attributed to the Caremark purchase which closed in March, 2007.  Earnings came in at $815 million or $.55/share, compared to $.417.2 million or $.49/share. 

The company beat expectations by a penny as analysts polled by Thomson Financial had been expecting $.54/share.  Within the report, the company noted that same-store sales increased 3.4% balanced evenly between pharmacy sales which increased 3.6% and front-end sales which grew 2.9%.

Looking at the Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated" financials on CVS, we can see the large jump in sales in the last twelve months, the steady increase in earnings as well as dividends, but unfortunately there was a large increase in outstanding shares from 853 million in 2006 to 1.3 billion in 2007. 

However, the company was able to increase per share amounts in spite of this increase and still post increasing free cash flow as well as show a satisfactory balance sheet with approximately $14 billion in current assets vs. $10.7 billion in current liabilities.  The company does have $12.6 billion in long-term liabilities reported on Morningstar. 

Examining the 'point & figure' chart on CVS from StockCharts.com, we can see that after declining between 2001 through 2002 from $31 to a low of $11 in late 2002, the company turned around and started moving steadily higher to a high of $42 in November, 2007.  With the company trading at $40.93, the company is just about a dollar under its all-time high.  The chart looks very strong to me. 

CVS CAREMARK (CVS) IS RATED A BUY

 

On October 12, 2006, I posted Regal-Beloit (RBC) on Stock Picks Bob's Advice when it was trading at $47.18.  RBC closed at $36.75 on April 25, 2008, for a loss of $(10.43) or (22.1)% since posting.  I do not own any shares or options of this stock.

On February 6, 2008, Regal-Beloit (RBC) reported 4th quarter 2007 results for the quarter ended December 29, 2007.  Net sales increased 29.5% to $474.7 million, from $366.6 million in the prior year same quarter.  Diluted earnings per share increased 4.4% to $.71/share from $.68/share last year.

The company beat expectations on revenue which had been expected to come in at $461.2 million (the company reported $474.7 million) and met expectations of $.71/share according to analysts polled by Thomson Financial.

The company related that the residential market was difficult, likely reflecting the current slow-down in residential construction:

"The fourth quarter proved to be especially challenging. The combination of a weaker-than-expected fourth quarter residential heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) market, the expected materials cost gap, and essentially no bottom line help from our new acquisitions, held back the margin and bottom line improvements that took place in our business," Chairman and Chief Executive Henry Knueppel said in a statement."

Looking longer-term, with the Morningstar.com "5-Yr Restated" financials on RBC, we can see an intact picture of steady revenue growth, steady earnings growth, steady dividend growth, relatively stable outstanding shares, increasing free cash flow, and a solid balance sheet with $730 million in current assets and $311.9 million in current liabilities.  The company does have $692.3 million in long-term liabilities on the book reported by Morningstar. 

Checking the 'point & figure' chart on Regal-Beloit (RBC), we can see the sell-off in shares starting in September, 2007, and continuing into 2008, although on the short-term, the company appears to have found some support in the $33 range with a series now of three consecutive higher lows short-term.  I am not sure of the technical significance of the last observation.  Certainly the stock has been under quite a bit of pressure and needs a lot of 'work' to get back on a bullish trend. 


With the guarded performance the latest quarter, the continued weakness in housing and the economy, even though the company reported a good quarter, maintains a good Morningstar.com 5-Yr page, the chart looks discouraging.  Thus,

REGAL-BELOIT (RBC) IS RATED A HOLD

So in summary, how did I do with these two stock picks?  Well considering when I posted them and the difficult stock market since, well not that bad.  Two showed gains and one a loss with an average of an 11.7% gain on these three stocks.

Thanks again for stopping by and visiting!  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

If you are interested, please feel free to visit my Covestor Page where you can review the performance and holdings of my actual trading portfolio, my SocialPicks Page where you can view an analysis of my picks for the past year-and-a-half, and my Podcast Page where you can download some mp3's and listen to me discuss some of the many stocks reviewed on this blog!

With my warmest wishes to you all!  Wishing you a week full of good health and financial success!

Yours in investing,

 

Bob 


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 11:20 AM CDT | Post Comment | View Comments (1) | Permalink
Updated: Sunday, 27 April 2008 11:32 AM CDT

Friday, 27 May 2011 - 2:02 PM CDT

Name: "kyle. s"

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