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Stock Picks Bob's Advice
Sunday, 29 June 2008
"Trading Portfolio Update" June 29, 2008

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your professional investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

My blog and my investment strategy continues to be an experiment for me.  I think it makes sense.  And the only way to figure it out is to employ my idiosyncratic strategy in real life.  Much like when I was younger and played with my Gilbert Chemistry Set!


As part of my promise to all of you to be as transparent as possible, I have been regularly sharing with you my actual trading portfolio.  You can also monitor my trades and my current performance on my Covestor Page.  And of course you can monitor all of my picks from the last year-and-a-half on my SocialPicks Page.

And if you have any comments or questions about all of that or anything I write, you certainly can leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com and I shall do my best at answering you.

My last update on my trading portfolio was a bit over a month ago on May 11, 2008.  Let me try to get this done in as concise and brief a fashion as possible.

Currently I have 5 positions in my Trading Portfolio.  This is my minimum exposure to equities in terms of number of positions.  My maximum number of positions is 20.  I haven't been up near 20 for awhile now.  

My number of positions floats between 5 and 20 depending upon the actions of my own holdings.  That is, when I sell a stock on 'bad' news, which for me is a result of a decline or an announcement of something fundamentally unfavorable with a stock---I sell that stock and "sit on my hands" with the proceeds (unless I am at the minimum---where I am now---in which case I would still sell the stock but look for a replacement.)

On the other hand, if I sell a portion (1/7th) of one of my stocks at an appreciation target (30, 60, 90, 120, 180%, etc.) appreciation, then I have a 'signal' to be adding a new position.  

It is my hope that this "experiment" will be successful and allow me to react to market conditions my shifting my exposure to equities from a minimal to a maximal level.  Like my Gilbert Set, this is still an experiment, and I am awaiting the final results :).

(Please let me know if any of you have also adopted this strategy so that I can share your comments regarding the utility or uselessness of this approach!)

Anyhow, back to my portfolio.  And I did say I would be brief :(.

Copart (CPRT): 180 shares,  acquired 9/27/07 with a cost basis of $33.68/share.  CPRT closed at $44.90 on 6/27/08, giving me a gain of  $11.22 or 33.1% since purchase.  I have sold 1/7th of my holding when the stock reached a 30% gain.  Thus, my next sale on the upside would be at a 60% appreciation target or 1.6 x $33.68 = $53.89.  On the downside, my plan is to sell if the stock drops to 'break-even' or $33.68.

Covance (CVD): 102 shares, acquired 4/9/07 at a cost basis of $62.61.  CVD closed at $84.24/share on 6/27/08, representing a gain of $21.63 or 34.5% since purchase.  I have sold 1/7th of my holding at the 30% appreciation level, so like my Copart stock, my next partial sale on the upside would be at a 60% gain or 1.60 x $62.61 = $100.18.  On the downside, my sale point would be at break-even or $62.61.

Graham (GHM): 105 shares,  purchased 5/30/08, at a cost basis of $64.48.  GHM closed at $69.82 on 6/27/08, giving me a gain of  $5.34 or 8.3% since purchase.  Since I have yet to sell any of these recently-acquired shares, my first sale on the upside is at a 30% gain or 1.30 x $64.48 = $83.82.  On the downside, I plan on selling these shares should they incur an 8% loss, or at a price of .92 x $64.48 = $59.32.

Morningstar (MORN): 103 shares, purchased 11/22/05, at a cost basis of $32.57.  MORN closed at $73.59 on 6/27/08 for a gain of $41.02 or 125.9% since purchase.  I have sold portions of MORN four times (at 30, 60, 90 and 120% appreciation levels).  My fifth sale on the upside would be at a 180% appreciation level or 2.80 x $32.57 = $91.20.  On the downside, after multiple sales at appreciation targets, I move my sale point to 1/2 of the highest appreciation level.  Thus, with the last sale at a 120% appreciation level, my targeted sale on the downside is 1/2 of that or at a 60% appreciation target.  (Note, I didn't mean that I would be selling at 1/2 of that price, but 1/2 of the appreciation %).  Thus, on the downside 1/2 of 120% = 60% or at a price of 1.60 x $32.57 = $52.11.

Meridian Bioscience (VIVO): 171 shares, purchased 4/21/05 at a cost basis of $7.42.  VIVO closed at $27.74 for a gain of $20.32 or 273.9% since purchase.  I have sold portions of VIVO eight times (!) at levels of 30, 60, 90, 120, 180, 240, 300, and 360% appreciation targets.  Thus on the downside, if VIVO slips further to the 180% appreciation level or $7.42 x 2.8 = $20.78, then I would sell all of my shares.  On the upside, a partial sale would next be at a 450% appreciatio level or 5.5 x $7.42 = $40.81.

As of 6/28/08, the entire portfolio had a value of $44,952.44.   This included cash of $8,623.55 and equities of $36,328.89.   As of 6/28/08 I had a realized net loss for 2008 of $(78.62) representing a net short-term loss of $(4,642.85) and a net long-term gain of $4,564.23.

As of 6/28/08, I had unrealized gains of $12,477.83 in my five current holdings.

So far my experiment appears to be working!

Thanks for dropping by!  If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to leave them on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

Yours in investing,

 

Bob 


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 6:29 PM CDT | Post Comment | Permalink

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