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Wednesday, 12 November 2008
Anticipating a Bull Market: Reconsideration of Position Size

Hello Friends!  Thanks so much for stopping by and visiting my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice!  As always, please remember that I am an amateur investor, so please remember to consult with your investment advisers prior to making any investment decisions based on information on this website.

I have been tinkering with my investment strategy recently.  As I have discussed previously, my portfolio management system requires me to be invested with at least some exposure to the market, regardless of the health or tone of the underlying business climate.

For me that means owning at least 5 positions at most times (I am presently at 4 waiting to find something to buy to bring it back to 5 after selling my BEAV shares this morning).  I do this because my own strategy depends on the actions of my own holdings to let me know whether I should be moving further into equities or moving instead towards cash.

Sales on good news generate 'buy signals' to add positions (assuming I am under 20 holdings), and sales on bad news--or declines--generate the opposite signal---that is they instruct me to 'sit on my hands'--unless I am at my minimum of 5--in which case these sales also give me a buy signal (as I received with my sale of my BE Aerospace shares this morning).

However, instead of buying a 'full' position, I am purchasing a reduced position equal to 1/2 of the average size of the remaining four positions.  Thus, instead of just continuing to compound my losses over and over on the way down, I do a bit of compounding but continue to pull back from stocks each transaction with continuing reduced exposure to equities.

I hope you follow.

I have assumed that on the way up, I would instead add an 'average' of the remaining positions as the size of the new holding.

But that isn't enough.

Otherwise I would be adding a tiny position resulting from past sales.  I need to be a bit more aggressive than that.

With that in mind, I am proposing on the way up that I shall be adding positions that are 125% of the average.  Thus in that way, I shall be putting my foot on the accelerator just like I put my foot on the brake pedal when times are bad.  I need to commit greater amounts of funds to the market as the eventual bull market unfolds.

Is 125% the right amount?  I don't know.  It took me awhile to get to the 1/7th position sales on the upside.  If you all have a better idea, please feel to leave your comments on the blog or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com.

This is all new to me.  But it makes intrinsic sense in the midst of the chaos that is Wall Street.

Wish me luck.  I wish all of you luck as well!

Yours in investing,

 

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 4:40 PM CST | Post Comment | Permalink

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