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Tuesday, 6 January 2004
January 6, 2004 Dollar Tree (DLTR)
Hello Friends! Thanks again for stopping by. I work away at this and we see some interesting stock winners and quite frankly, a few that 'fall out of bed' and aren't winners for us! Remember to always to check with your financial advisor before acting on any information on this website as investments discussed may or may not be suitable for you.

Dollar Tree Stores (DLTR) hit the list today. This is another one of those dollar stocks that seem to be popping up everywhere! DLTR as I write is trading at $31.85 up $2.26 or 7.64%. That's more than a dollar! What appears to be driving this stock up this morning is an upgrade from Robert W. Baird, as reported on Yahoo.com, from Neutral to "outperform".

On November 25, 2003, DLTR reported their fiscal third quarter earnings as reported on Yahoo.com from a story on BUSINESS WIRE. Earnings/share were $.31 vs. $.27 in the quarter last year. Net sales for the quarter were $665 million vs $556 million last year. Comparable store sales were up 3.2% for the first nine months...but frankly I did not see the same store sales for the quarter listed in the earnings report....Might be there but didn't see it on my first perusal!

Looking at Morningstar.com report on DLTR we find that revenue has grown nicely from $1.1 billion in 1998, $1.4 billion in 1999, $1.7 billion in 2000, $2.0 billion in 2001, $2.5 billion in 2003 (where is the result for 2002???), and $2.8 billion in the trailing twelve months. Honestly, the 2002 results are not present on Morningstar.com so either they changed their reporting year or we have a typo!

Checking key statistics on Yahoo.com we find that DLTR has a market cap of $3.68 Billion. The trailing p/e is reasonable at 20.53, and forward p/e (fye 1-Feb-05) is nice also at 16.26. I like the PEG at 0.91 and price/sales isn't bad at 1.18.

Yahoo.com reports 115.10 million shares outstanding with 108.80 million that float. There are 3.74 million shares out short representing 3.44% of the float or 1.749 trading days of volume. No dividend is paid and the last stock split reported on Yahoo.com is a 3:2 split on June 20, 2000.

Overall, this is an interesting stock that is growing nicely and presents a compelling valuation picture with low p/e and nice PEG ratio. I personally don't know how much growth these dollar stores can sustain...but "ours is not reason why"...would be a good quote. We need to pick stocks based on financial performance and not put our own limited views of stock niches too heavily into our investing decisions imho.

Good luck in 2004. Thanks again for stopping by. I am aware of the misstep of KRON in my trading account and am watching that stock closely. Currently we have about a 40% gain even with the current correction and we will need to monitor the continuing SAGA of that company!

If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to post them right here on the website or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com

Bob


Posted by bobsadviceforstocks at 9:40 AM CST | Post Comment | Permalink

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