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Wednesday, 7 January 2004
January 7, 2004 Kenneth Cole Productions (KCP)
Hello Friends! Thanks again for stopping by. As you might have read from the prior note, I sold my KRON and ELAB today in the trading account. Back down to 23 positions. We have all year (!) to get back to 25. When stocks are way ahead and start dropping on what sounds to be some fundamental issue, or should I say an issue affecting fundamentals, maybe it is prudent to sell out and move on. We shall see. As always, please consult with your own investment advisor before making any decisions based on information on this website.

According to money.cnn.com , Kennetch Cole Productions (KCP) "...designs, sources and markets a broad range of footwear, handbags and accessories under its Kenneth Cole New York, Kenneth Cole Reaction and Unlisted brand names." KCP is having a nice day today, trading as I write at $31.95, up $1.52 or 5.00%.

Looking at third quarter results ,which were reported on October 29, 2003 on Yahoo.com from a PRNewswire-FirstCall story, net revenue was $132.1 million this year, up from $123.5 million last year in the same quarter. Fully diluted earnings/share were $.49/share this year vs $.33/share last year. (However, last year's results were $.44/share before an $.11/share charge for 'non-recurring items'.)

Looking at Morningstar.com 5-yr restated financials, we find that revenue has grown somewhat irregularly from $228 million in 1998 to $433.0 million in 2002.

During the same period, earnings/share have grown from $.80/share to $1.35 in the trailing twelve months. Free cash flow has been positive improving from $27 million in 2000 to $33 million in the trailing twelve months. The balance sheet on Morningstar is also quite clean with $102.4 million in cash reported, more than enough to pay off all of the current liabilities of $55.0 million and the long-term liabilities of $26.7 million combined. In addition, KCP has $87.8 million in other current assets.

Looking at key statistics on Yahoo.com, we find that KCP has a market cap of $632.35 million, a trailing p/e of 21.12 which isn't bad, a forward p/e based on estimates from next twelve months of 17.00, a PEG of 1.14 and price/sales of 1.32.

KCP has 19.80 million shares outstanding with only 5.20 million of them that float. By the way, I do not own any shares either directly or indirectly in this company. There are 341,000 shares out short representing 6.56% of the float or 3.157 average trading days of volume. KCP does pay a small dividend of $.36/share yielding 1.18%. The last stock split reported on Yahoo was a 3:2 in March, 2000.

Overall, I like this stock just fine. I would prever to see a more linear growth in earnings and revenue, but KCP is growing, is profitable, is loaded with cash, pays a dividend, has a PEG just over 1.0 and a price/sales just over 1.0...so looks pretty nice to me!

Thanks again for stopping by. If you have any questions, comments, or words of encouragement, please feel free to post them right here or email me at bobsadviceforstocks@lycos.com...

Bob


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